Alternative Energy Will Outperform The Market, With Storage Stocks Leading the Way
The public relations firm Waggener Edstrom released a survey of investors and analysts yesterday seeking opinions on what was in store for alternative energy for 2009 (link to the survey at the end of this article). Of the 81 respondents, 47 were institutional investors, 26 were brokerage analysts, five were from independent research firms and three were classified as "Other industry participants". Overall, 58% of respondents were from the buy side, 32% from the sell side and the remainder from "Other". Here are a few tidbits that caught my attention. Storage: The Next Boom? Overall, 50% of respondents expect...
Why Long Range EVs Can Never Be Cost Effective
by John Petersen America’s love affair with the automobile has always been based on the freedom of the road and the ability to hop in the car and drive wherever we want to go; be it to the corner store to buy a loaf of bread or out to the lake for a long weekend. Even though most of our trips are short, people invariably want the flexibility to go for a long drive when the open road beckons. Unfortunately, that mentality is disastrous when it comes to EV economics. I’ve been writing about energy...
Comparing Electricity Storage and Transmission
Electricity Storage and Transmission are naturally complementary, and more of both will be needed. But given limited time and resources, where should those of us who want to see as much renewable electricity on the grid as soon as possible concentrate our efforts? The choice is not immediately clear. Dennis Ray, ED of Power Systems Engineering Research Center (PSERC) was quoted as saying “Regardless of contractual arrangements that are subject to environmental regulation, the ultimate dispatch pattern that will determine the actual emissions is largely dependent on transmission constraints and reliability considerations.” Horses for Courses At a basic...
Lithium Technology Corporation (LTHU.PK)
Quite a while ago, I promised readers that I'd write an article looking into Lithium Technology Corporation (LTHU.PK,) in addition to articles I've already written on US Geothermal (HTM) and Evergreen Solar (ESLR) Lithium Tech is a provider of custom lithium rechargeable batteries for military, national security, stationary power, and transportation applications. Investors hoping for the big score probably have their eyes on the transportation applications, which should drive demand for lithium-ion batteries over the next decade. That's all wonderful, but since August, we've had a financial meltdown, prompting me to focus much more on companies' need to raise...
What I Sold: Electro Energy, Inc. (NASD:EEEI)
Of all the stocks I've sold in response to the market turmoil, Electro Energy was the most painful to sell, both emotionally and financially. The sale was painful emotionally because I've been recommending this company for a year (albeit with the caveat that it was a speculative bet.) In each article I wrote I said something along the lines of "If EEEI can obtain financing..." Now even investment grade companies have serious trouble obtaining financing. If an outside company is interested in EEEI's manufacturing assets or technology, there is little reason for them to buy EEEI stock. Any outside...
What I Sold: VRB Power (VRBPF.PK, VRB.V)
VRB Power is the only public vendor of a flow battery chemistry, the Vanadium Redox Battery. I bought the company when I first realized that in order to get a large proportion of intermittent wind and solar energy onto the grid, long term electricity storage would be essential. Of the available technologies, flow batteries are some of most technically elegant. Since VRB is one of only two publicly traded vendors of large scale batteries, I bought some. Lessons Learned I was not being discriminating. Even with the belief that large scale storage will soon be needed to integrate...
Batteries for HEVs, Batteries for EVs
I'm a longtime fan of electric vehicles (EVs) as well as Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), in all their variations. When it comes to investing, I think the best way to invest in on the growth of electric transportation is batteries, partly because pure play battery companies exist (although my top battery pick, Electro Energy (EEEID) , has been one of my poorest performers, in a classic case of a cheaply priced company getting even cheaper. Given these interests, I was speaking to the President of Porous Power Technologies, a private battery components firm a couple weeks ago...
Investment Ideas From the One-House Grid
In June, I wrote how intermittent power sources such as photovoltaics and wind would have to compete with baseload technologies such as IGCC "Clean Coal" and nuclear for capacity on the grid. The key problem is that neither baseload technologies nor intermittent technologies are able to match themselves to the fluctuations of demand. This creates a need for technologies which can fill the varying gaps between supply from these sources, and normal energy use. From the comments, it seems like I was not completely clear how intermittent and baseload power cause problems for each other, so I will start...
Large-scale Energy Storage In Focus
I recently came across an interesting report released in June by the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental think-tank, on large-scale electricity storage. The ability (or lack thereof) of the grid to take in all that new renewable power ranks as one of the main near-term risks to the growth of the alt energy sector, and cost-effective storage could go a long way in alleviating grid concerns. The report outlines the main technological options for storage along with their strengths and weaknesses. Although I wish there was more information on the costs of these technologies, as this is currently...
Why The McCain Proposal Will Do Nothing For Battery Technology
On Monday, John McCain, in a drive to build his environmental credentials, pledged that if he were elected he would initiate a contest to come up with a car battery design that leapfrogs current technology and makes electric car and plug-in hybrids a reality. The winner would get a $300 million prize, or about $1 per American, which according to McCain is a small price to pay for the benefits this technology would yield. A politician would only make such a pledge for one of two reasons: (a) he has no insight into how innovation occurs in an...
Ten Alternative Energy Speculations for 2008: Batteries, CHP, and Transmission
This article is a continuation of my Ten Alternative Energy Speculations for 2008, with picks #8, 9, and10 published last Thursday. If you haven't already, please read the introduction of that article before buying any of the stock picks that follow. These companies are likely to be highly volatile, and large positions are not appropriate for many investors. My least risky picks (#8,9, and #10) are part of that same article; my most speculative plays (#1-3) will are here. #7 Electro Energy, Inc. (NasdaqCM:EEEI) $0.68 Electro Energy has risen 36% in the month and a half since I last...
Trading Alert: Electro Energy Inc. (EEEI)
Since I first profiled Electro Energy Inc. (EEEI) on September 16, the stock first fell substantially to as low as 30 cents, and just recently has shot back up to the price it was when I wrote the article, a very cheap 50 cents. bipolar rebound I have bought the stock for myself and clients repeatedly in the intervening dip, and I made another purchase at $.50 today because of two news items which dramatically improve the prospects for the company. On October 29, they announced that they raised $750,000...
Visual Comparison of Alternative Transportation Fuels
I've recently agreed to do a of couple presentations on "Investing In Green Energy" at conferences this October, and so I've decided it's time to update and expand on some graphs I constructed this spring: I created a pair of graphs which give an overview of how different electricity generation technologies compare. These are not precise graphs with anything resembling scientific accuracy, but I think they're a useful too for understanding the strengths and weaknesses of various technologies. This is my attempt to do the same for transportation fuels. Note that I'm really only talking about cars and trucks...
Electro Energy: Drained, or Ready to Recharge?
Bottom-Fishing for Batteries I believe that we have only seen the beginning of the current market decline. You should take that with a grain of salt, since I've been unremittingly bearish since 1999 and for more than half that time, the market has been going up. Even if the market has much further to fall, some stocks may have already taken most of the damage they are likely to take. Knowing that I might be wrong, I've started to do a little bottom fishing among companies that people have been starting to dump as the realize stock prices can...
War With Iran? Buy Alternative Energy Stocks.
September is starting out as the month of speculation about a massive three day air strike on Iran. Is Bush ready to attack Iran while our troops are still trying to stabilize both Afghanistan and Iraq? In February, administration officials were denying it. The preparations now going on could simply be the stick part of a negotiating strategy; the bad cop to Russia's good cop. But Bush's chances of successful cooperation with Putin could be better. What if? If Bush does launch a massive three day air strike on Iran, what will that mean for alternative energy stocks? I...
ETS Interview: The Will the Real Transportation Fuel of the Future Step Forward
For macro reasons, I think that the next generation liquid fuels may be cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel or renewable diesel from algae. But those fuels will increasingly be sharing the roads with the long term transportation fuel of the future: electricity from renewable sources, especially wind. Wind will be important for electric transportation and electric transportation will be important for wind because, when you're already going to be charging batteries, you may as well do it when the electricity is cheap, which will be when the wind is blowing.. Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) neatly solve the main barrier...