Industry General

By Marc Gunther.  Eighteen months ago, the people who manage the endowment at the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation got some bad news: Investments they had made in funds managed by EnerVest, a Houston-based private equity firm that operates more than 33,000 oil and gas wells across the US, had plummeted in value to almost nothing. The losses were small, relatively speaking — roughly $15 million, a fraction of the foundation’s $7 billion endowment — but they were unwelcome, if only because they called attention to the fact that MacArthur, whose mission is, famously, to build a “more just, verdant and peaceful world,” had...

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Supply and Demand One uncomfortable fact for green investors is that the clean energy transition is going to require a lot more mines.  Lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, graphite, even steel: just name and industrial commodity, and we’re probably going to need a lot more of it. Total mineral demand for clean energy technologies by scenario, 2010-2040   Even worse, it’s not at all clear where all these materials are going to come from.  While there are plenty of all the elements we need in the Earth’s crust, actually mining them all in the next 20 years is not...

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Second quarter earnings season is in full swing.  Below are a couple updates and the monthly performance chart that I recently shared with my Patreon supporters. Green Plains Partners Earnings and Future Dividend (published August 2nd) Ethanol Master Limited Partnership Green Plains Partners (GPP) declared second quarter earnings today.  The main news remains the long anticipated debt refinancing and new dividend guidance going forward. At the end of the first quarter, I predicted that, after debt refinancing, GPP would increase its quarterly dividend to something in the $0.25 to $0.30 range.   The new guidance is for the partnership to target...

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by Paula Mints Transmission and distribution is the process of getting electricity from the point of generation to the point of use. Unfortunately, upgrades, maintenance, and the need to extend the electricity infrastructure from point a to point b are often ignored. Also ignored are infrastructure designs that support a distributed grid with renewable energy sources of electricity. Transmission bottlenecks are the utterly foreseeable consequence of accelerated solar and wind deployment. As countries worldwide were announcing RE goals, holding auctions, and providing incentives, system operators everywhere were warning about the need to add new and upgrade existing infrastructure while also warning about...

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA On Friday February 2nd, Brookfield Renewable (BEP and BEPC) reported earnings.  Judging by the immediate stock market reaction, many investors did not like the results.  Quarterly earnings actually beat expectations, but for Yieldcos like Brookfield, cash flow numbers and revenue (which can be more indicative of the company’s ability to pay and raise dividends) can be more important.  These fell short. The company attributes the cash flow shortfall to its own clients delaying payments at the end of December, in order to make their own financial statements look better, and it expects the shortfall to reverse...

If you want your money to help with the transition to the clean energy economy, most investment advisors will probably try to accommodate by finding a few green mutual funds for you. There are now hundreds of mutual funds and ETFs that brand themselves as green, but many will not meet your definition of what is "green." This could mean not being completely divested from fossil fuels, investing in nuclear power, or owning too much of non-fossil fuel stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) and not enough green-focused  companies like Tesla (TSLA). An investment advisor who does not consider values...

by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA 2020 ended with a massive spike in clean energy stock prices.  From the end of October, election euphoria drove Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) from $63.32 to $136 at the close on February 9th, a 114% gain in 100 days.   Joe Biden is as strong a supporter of clean energy as Donald Trump was a supporter of big fossil fuel companies, but even with control of the presidency and both chambers of congress, there is a limit to what a president can do in a short time.  This is especially true when their top priority...

I recently attended the Solar Energy Industry Association's (SEIA) Finance and Tax Seminar in New York. The subject matter in this event delved into issues related to tax equity finance.  Each panel session was moderated by a tax attorney or an accountant, and most of the content of the sessions consisted of technical tax law. To place the discipline into context, one speaker noted that the tax equity renewables investing deal volume in 2018 was $2-3B for solar and $9B for wind, and the number of tax equity participants is roughly only 25-35 large corporations.  So unless there are changes...

by Giles Kirkland Even though many states seem to enter the “construction season” every spring, there’s still a significant backlog of vital repairs and improvements needed for state roads, interstates and bridges – around $420 billion worth as of 2017. Not only are our roads falling apart, there are greater numbers of people in more vehicles on them. But what if, instead of simply following same repaving or rebuilding formula that never seems to catch up, municipalities get “smarter” with their fixes? Smart cars use the newest technologies to save energy, improve safety, and assist in navigation. Missing from many of the...