Portfolio

Tom Konrad CFA Experimenting with more frequent updates In the past, I genrally only wrote about my annual list of ten clean energy stocks on a quarterly basis, but when I wrote last month to apolgize for inadvertently slipping in an extra stock, and in the process wrote a few notes on a couple of the stocks with news, a couple readers wrote to say they liked the more frequent updates.  So let it be written, so let it be done.  Leave a comment if you think it's something I should continue doing,...

Tom Konrad. CFA A "bonus" stock pick this year.  Also, notes on New Flyer Industries and Finavera Wind Energy. Maybe it was because Seeking Alpha did not carry my annual list of 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2012 this year, but no one seems to have noticed that there were actually 11 stocks in the list.  Call it the Spinal Tap of top-ten lists. If anyone did notice the extra pick, they didn't leave a comment.  What happened was that I have two number 8 stocks, but there is enough text...

Tom Konrad, CFA There is a silver lining to the horrible year clean energy stocks had in 2011: the opportunity to buy clean energy stocks (often considered a growth sector) at prices one would expect from value stocks. Each year since 2008 I have published an annual list of ten clean energy stocks I thought were good buys at the beginning of the year.  While the 2008 list was not really intended as an investment portfolio, my annual lists quickly evolved into a mini-portfolio of stock intended for hands-off investors who did not want to pay the high...

Tom Konrad CFA My clean energy portfolio outperformed again in 2011, but it was a Pyrrhic victory. Without a doubt, 2011 was a horrible year for Clean Energy stocks, nearly as bad as 2008.  The difference was that, in 2008, the entire stock market was crushed, while this year, the broad market ended with only modest declines compared to clean energy stocks. Based on 2010 and 2011 closing prices, the broad market (as measured by the performance of the Russell 2000 index), was down 10%, while clean energy stocks were down 52%, as...

Tom Konrad CFA Three stocks I sold recently, and why. Three years later, I'm still kicking myself that the severity of the 2008 financial crisis and stock market collapse took me by surprise.  Not that I wasn't in good company.  If a majority of investors had been prepared for the crisis, it would never have happened in the first place: The overpriced CDOs and other securities which were a large part of the cause would never have become overpriced.  But making excuses for past mistakes is not useful.  Learning from them...

Tom Konrad CFA Few investors have good memories of 2008, but when it comes to the performance of my annual model portfolio of ten clean energy stocks, I'm finding the resemblance to 2008 remarkably striking.  The good part of that memory is that my picks are once again out-performing my clean energy benchmark, the PowerShares Clean Energy ETF (PBW).  The bad news is that "out-performance" means down 44% for the portfolio, compared to down 48% for PBW: a Pyrrhic victory.  Over the same period, the broad market Russell 2000 index was down 22%.  For 2008,...

Tom Konrad CFA Corrected version 8/11/2011 Apologies to readers who have been missing my articles recently.  I've had little time to write as I have been too busy trading.  Long-time readers know that I've been bearish since the summer of 2009, and it has been a painful two years as I maintained my short positions and puts in the face of a generally rising market.  Market Outlook In my opinion, we are still a good distance from the bottom.  The rise of the stock market over the last two years has been predicated on...

Tom Konrad CFA Some investors buy clean energy stocks because it's the right thing to do, others because we know that the diminishing availability and increasing environmental impacts of traditional fuels will eventually force society to adopt more sustainable solutions.  Cartoonist Scott Adams says we're all wrong, and we should invest in companies we hate.  Although Adams' column is meant to amuse, rather than as investment advice, it's funny because he touches on two very important truths about investing. Although a few investors can outperform the market over the long run, the vast majority can't,...

Tom Konrad CFA Buying opportunities return to clean energy. Two years ago I had a problem.  In the universe of clean energy stocks I watch, I could not find any that I thought were good values.  So I wrote an article saying "We're near the peak." If you had been comparing that call to the performance of the broad stock market since then, you would have to conclude that I was ludicrously wrong.  The S&P 500 is up 40% since then. If on the other hand, you'd been watching clean energy stocks, you would...

Tom Konrad, CFA The geothermal and demand response stocks in my annual portfolio of ten clean energy stocks for 2011 have fallen significantly since the start of the year, making this an excellent time to buy. Every year since 2007 I've been publishing a list of ten renewable energy and energy efficiency stocks that I think will do well over the coming year.  For 2008-10, my list outperformed my clean energy benchmark.  This year so far looks like it is going to break my streak, but there is a very bright silver lining: I now think four...

Tom Konrad, CFA My annual mini-portfolio of clean energy stocks which I expect to outperform in 2011. This is my fourth annual list of renewable energy and energy efficiency stocks since I began the series in January 2008.  The Purpose of this List For myself, these lists serve as a record of my thinking on the market which I can look back on and learn from over the following year.  When I publish the list, I state my reasons for selecting each stock, and then track the portfolio's performance over the following year in...

Tom Konrad CFA My ten annual stock picks have outperformed their clean energy benchmark for the third year running. Each year, I publish a list of ten renewable energy, energy efficiency, and cleantech stocks that I feel will outperform their peers in the coming year.  In both 2008 and 2009, my picks have beaten their industry benchmark, the PowerShares Wilderhill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), the most widely held industry ETF and the one that I recommend for making short-term bets on the clean energy industry.  The 2010 list is here. This year has been an interesting...

Tom Konrad CFA Cherry picking the holdings of green energy mutual funds. So far in this series I've concentrated on trying to pick the best of the Alternative Energy and Climate Change Mutual Funds.  This is a difficult task, because while I found in Part III that most of the funds' performance has been better than comparable index ETFs, these mutual funds' costs are quite high, even by the standards of most mutual funds, as I discussed in Part I.  In part II, I tried looking at the sector breakdown of the funds' holdings, to see if...

John Petersen Short sellers are the bane of every securities lawyer who represents small public companies. In over thirty years of practice I've never advocated a short sale because I hate the idea of profiting from someone else's misery. Based on recent quarterly reports filed by my short-list of pure play energy storage companies, which includes Tesla Motors (TSLA) as an honorary member, I'm compelled to break with tradition and suggest a paired trade that involves a short sale of Tesla coupled with a long purchase of Exide Technologies (XIDE). The following table summarizes the year-to-date and...

Tom Konrad CFA Although green stocks did better than un-green (or brown) stocks since Newsweek's 2009 Green Rankings were published, the big winners were the greenest stocks in the brownest sectors. Newsweek has released its 2010 Green Rankings for America's 500 largest corporations, and the companies at the top of the list are happily gloating about being greener than their rivals.  More important to investors is the question: Do the greenest companies beat the market? Marc Gunther notes that the top 100 companies in the 2009 Green Rankings outperformed the S&P 500 by 6.8%.  ...

Tom Konrad CFA To my surprise, the market came back in the 3rd Quarter, and my portfolio of put options designed to hedge a market decline is predictably down.  However, my benchmark (a put against the Dow Jones Industrials has performed even worse than my picks.) I don't have a lot to say about the performance of my Ten Green Gambles for 2010 so far this year.  These gambles were a bet on a market decline in 2010.  Since we're now into the 4th quarter and the market is still...