The Solar PV Shipment Shell Game

by Paula Mints Outsourcing has been a common practice in the photovoltaic industry since…always. Ignoring it in favor of reporting higher shipment numbers has been a common practice since…always. There is more outsourcing now than there was ten years ago because the industry is bigger. When the PV industry was at megawatt levels, outsourcing was at megawatt levels. Now that the industry is at gigawatt levels, outsourcing is at gigawatt levels. Today’s outsourcing is also more acceptable in the past everyone did it quietly, today it is out in the open. Yet despite this openness and acceptability,...

SolarCity: Sunburn, or Healthy Glow?

By Harris Roen SolarCity (SCTY) fell 9.1% Wednesday when the company released its first quarter earnings report, but gained all of it back and then Thursday on huge volume. Still, the stock has plummeted 22% in three months, and is down 37% from its highs in February 2014. Is this just a healthy correction from its outsized 400%+ gains from the IPO just 17 months ago? Or have we entered into a new lower trading range more in line with financial realties? This article will analyze current developments to this distinctive energy stock, and project where...

Flying into the Sun

by Debra Fiakas CFA Shares of two solar panel producers appeared on one of our favorite stock screens the other day  -  energy stocks that have traded downward to a point they appear oversold.  Trina Solar, Ltd. (TSL:  NYSE) recently closed at $11.22, down 39% from its 52-week high set in early March this year, but well above where the stock was trading a year ago.  RenaSola, Ltd. (SOL:  NYSE) has followed a similar track, recently closing at $2.61 well above its 52-week low.  The question for investors is whether investors should take advantage...

Can’t Put Solar On Your House? Four Ways To Invest In Solar Leases

Tom Konrad CFA Disclosure: I and my clients have long positions in HASI. I have sold NYLD $40 and $45 calls short. The secret sauce for bringing residential solar into the mainstream is the solar lease.  With the simple value proposition of little or no money down and cost savings from day one, a homeowner does not have to be an environmentalist or green to be interested in the green of a solar lease.  He or she simply needs to live in a state where the combination of annual sunshine and state incentives provide the economics to make solar...

Beijing Taking Hands-Off Approach To Solar Recovery

by Doug Young China sent an important message to the struggling solar panel sector last week when one of the country’s major manufacturers was forced to turn to global capital markets to raise new funds, hinting that it couldn’t receive the money from state-backed domestic sources. The move sparked a sell-off for New York-listed shares of Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), as its request for funds met with a frosty response on Wall Street. The fact that Yingli had to seek funding from commercial-oriented western investors indicates Beijing is taking a hands-off approach to financing...

Don’t Bet Against SolarCity

By Jeff Siegel DISCLOSURE: Long SCTY. It wasn't an April Fool's Day gag when I said it was time to buy SolarCity Corp. (NASDAQ: SCTY) at the beginning of the month. After a brief standstill, the company's battery-backed solar projects have begun to move forward again. The State of California Public Utilities Commission has added an important item to its May 15 agenda that will make a huge difference for SolarCity. Utility companies may finally be blocked from imposing big fees on battery-backed solar systems. For more than a year, California's largest utilities companies demanded...

New Yingli Fund Evokes Shades Of Suntech

Doug Young I wrote earlier this week about troublesome signs for the solar panel sector’s fledgling recovery after a revenue warning from Trina (NYSE: TSL), and now we’re seeing another worrisome signal with news that Yingli (NYSE: YGE) is launching a new fund to build solar power plants. This kind of scheme looks eerily similar to one that kicked off the downfall of former industry leader Suntech (NYSE: STPFQ), though there are also a few differences. Still, Yingli’s latest move signals that the industry may not have learned its lesson from the Suntech debacle. Yingli’s decision...

Trina Warning Foreshadows Solar Gloom

Doug Young After watching their shares and prospects soar over the past year, solar stocks are suddenly hitting a cloudy patch as investors anxiously wait for most companies to return to the profit column following a 2 year sector downturn. That wait may have just gotten a lot longer, following a warning from Trina (NYSE: TSL) that it will fall far short of its previous sales forecasts for the just-ended first quarter. Trina blames the problem on short-term factors, as it and other Chinese panel makers work to finalize an...

SolarCity’s Second Solar Lease-Backed Bond Closes Thursday

SolarCity is on the road with a $70.2m, 8yr, BBB+ rooftop solar leases securitization; closes Thursday Sean Kidney US company SolarCity (NASD:SCTY) has priced a solar bond backed by cash flows from a pool of 6,596 mainly residential solar panel systems and power purchase agreements in California, Arizona, and Colorado. Expected bond figure is $70.2 million, but the bond doesn’t close until Thursday this week. Interest rate is 4.59%. Credit Suisse is structurer and sole bookrunner. This is SolarCity’s second solar securitization in six months. Their previous (ground-breaking) bond was for $54.4 million with an...

It’s Time to Buy SolarCity

By Jeff Siegel Well, it was a record-breaking day for Texas last week. On March 26, at 8:48 p.m., nearly 30% of the Lone Star State's electricity was generated by wind. Most came from West Texas, and there wasn't a single issue regarding integration. Despite the common refrain of “the grid can't handle all this intermittent power,” Texans had no problem turning on the lights with all those extra wind-powered electrons. Of course, for those of you who rely on actual data instead of empty rhetoric, this should come as no surprise. In fact, a new study just...

Ascent Solar: Grounded

By Brandon Qureshi Recently, Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI:  Nasdaq) , a publicly traded solar power company, received an additional $5.0 million from institutional investor Ironridge Technology, thereby completing a $10 million Series B Preferred Stock investment.  AST, based in Thornton, Colorado, has emerged as a leader in the development of flexible, thin, high-performance solar panels. In order to examine AST within an industrial context, a profile of the solar power industry is necessary: According to sources such as Time and E&E Publishing, the industry has experienced record levels of popularity in the United States in the last...

LDK Melts Down, Solar Default Signs Grow

Doug Young  One of China’s 2 major meltdowns in the solar panel sector has taken a big step forward with word that trading in shares of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) has been suspended and the de-listing process formally begun as the company liquidates. Meantime, word of a missed interest payment by a building materials maker is sending the latest signal that China will let more companies in ailing sectors default on their debt rather than pay off their creditors. That’s an important signal for the solar sector, which relies heavily on such debt to finance its operations and where...

SolarCity: Overpriced or Opportunity?

Does SolarCity (SCTY) look like a good investment at current prices? The most recent financials released by SCTY fills out the picture of how this unique company performed for 2013. Do the numbers justify the outsized stock performance, which has risen 222% in the past 12 months, and 384% since its Initial Public Offering in December 2012? Or on the other hand, are recent filings more reflective of the 42% drop since the highs of a month ago? This article will follow the data to see where this distinctive energy stock stands now, and forecast where this...

China, EU Reach Solar Settlement But More Defaults Loom

Doug Young China and the European Union have reached a new settlement that should formally end their ongoing dispute over solar panels, contrasting sharply from a more confrontational tack taken by the US in a similar spat. Meantime in other solar news, a looming new bond default by a mid-sized panel maker has become the latest sign that Beijing is prepared to let more of these smaller companies miss their debt payments. That approach will force these smaller firms to either leave the industry or sell their money-losing operations to larger peers, in a much-needed industry consolidation....

Nuclear and Solar From Down Under

by Debra Fiakas CFA Last week the Aussies invaded New York City, bivouacking at a popular hotel and parading a string of Australia-based companies in front of investors.  Of course, there were the usual mining and minerals companies for which resource-rich Australia is so famous.  However, the Australia Stock Exchange  -  one of the event sponsors  -   has diversified with listings in communications, biotechnology and alternative energy. One of the presenters, Silex Systems, Inc. (SLX:  ASX and SILXY:  OTCQX) is a talented little company with technologies for solar and nuclear power generation.  Silex has developed a laser...

China’s Solar Panel Makers Set For A Correction

Doug Young After a massive rally over the last year, shares of solar panel makers could be set for a few months of winter following a disappointing earnings announcement from superstar Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ) and a debt default from second-tier player Chaori Solar (Shenzhen: 002506). Such a correction was almost inevitable after last year’s huge rally and shouldn’t be cause for concern among long-term buyers of shares in top players like Canadian Solar. But shareholders of second-tier firms like Chaori might think strongly about selling their stock, as these smaller companies could easily end up getting wiped...
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