Tag: AY

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA With the launch of my (green dividend income focused) hedge fund early this year, I had to take a hiatus from publishing my annual list of 10 Clean Energy Stocks that I feel will do well in the coming year.  Since my duty to clients takes precedence over readers, I could not tell people about stocks I liked before buying them for the fund. As we complete the first half of the year, the fund is now largely invested, although I am still keeping some buying power back in anticipation that the overall market could easily...

By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Here are two more updates from last week on Patreon.  Also, I realize I neglected to publish the monthly performance chart for my 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio here at the start of the month, so here it is as well: Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure Earnings (published May 11th) Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY) released its first quarter earnings announcement and financial statements on May 6th. Atlantica is one of the higher yielding Yieldcos, 5.3% at the new quarterly dividend rate of $0.43 and a $32.50 stock price.  The dividend is safe, since most of Atlantica's debt is fixed rate,...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA This morning, hedge fund Water Island Capital called on Pattern Energy (PEGI) Shareholders to vote against the merger with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB). Water Island claims the merger is undervalued compared to the recently surging prices of other Yieldcos, and that PEGI would be trading at over $30 given current valuations.  There are not a lot of other Yieldcos left, especially if we eliminate those with their own special circumstances.  These are Terraform Power (TERP) which is subject to its own buyout agreement with Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP), and Clearway (CWEN and CWEN/A) where...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Sometimes it's good to be wrong. When I published the Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2019 model portfolio on New Year's Day 2019, I thought we were likely in the beginning of a bear market.  With 20/20 hindsight, that was obviously wrong. I made the following predictions and observations: "he clean energy income stocks which are my focus should outperform riskier growth stocks."  "eep value investors will put a floor under the stock prices of these ten stocks." "I could also be wrong about the future course of this market."  "I have a history...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA 2019 has become another blockbuster year for the Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio and, to a lesser extent clean energy stocks and the broad stock market as well.  I'm frankly surprised to see the party continuing.  The continued spiking of the metaphorical punch bowl by the Federal Reserve with interest rate cuts certainly has a lot to do with it. I had expected those cuts to be both fewer and less effective. Which all goes to show that it's always a good idea to hedge one's bets in the stock market.  At least in part...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Although valuations and political uncertainty have me spooked, October was another strong month for the stock market in general and clean energy income stocks in particular. While my broad income stock benchmark SDY added 1.6% for a year to date total gain of 19.6%.  My clean energy income stock benchmark YLCO did even better, 2.7% for October and 29.7% year to date.  The 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio fell somewhere in between for the month (up 1.8%) but remains unchallenged for the year to date (40.7%).   My real-money managed strategy, GGEIP, lagged as I reduce...

I missed my regular monthly update in early June because of vacation. In hindsight, early June looks like it was a good buying opportunity. The broad market of dividend stocks (represented by my benchmark SDY) falling six percent in May, only to rebound a similar amount in June. At the time, I would have continued to advise caution: “Sell the peaks” rather than “Buy the dips.” Particularly volatile stocks like European autoparts supplier Valeo (FR.PA) from this list would have generated even greater short term gains. But it would take more than a six percent market decline to transform this bear...

In April, my 10 clean energy stocks model portfolio continued to power ahead, despite the concerns about market valuation I expressed last month.  As I said at the time "me being nervous about the market is not much of an indicator that stocks are going to fall" at least in the short term.  So I continue to trim winning positions and increase my allocation to cash as stocks advance. Both the model portfolio and the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP) were up 4.5% and 3.6% respectively in April.  This was solidly ahead of their clean energy income benchmark YLCO...

The first quarter of 2019 saw the market's largest quarterly gain in a decade, and my 10 clean energy stocks model portfolio outperformed both the broad market and the clean energy income ETF I use as a benchmark (see chart above.) Performance that strong makes me nervous, especially since the last time we saw gains like these it was the stock market rebound from the financial crisis.  In this case, while the market was down in the last quarter of 2018, it had only been enough of a decline to blow a little of the foam off the top of...

It's hard to find anything to complain about in the first two month's performance of my 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2019 model portfolio.  Unfortunately, I'm about to go on vacation and don't have time to do an update on all the earnings reports that have come out over the last two weeks.  I will try to get to them individually as I have time. Strategically, I'd like to say I'm getting very nervous about this market rally, and think that readers should be taking profits opportunistically and increasing your cash positions.

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Almost every major index fell in 2018.  My Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio and the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP), the real-money portfolio that I manage were not exceptions.  Still, I'm satisfied with their performance: the model portfolio lost only 1.3 percent for the year, while GGEIP was down 2.6 percent.  That's well ahead of most indexes, including my benchmarks YLCO (down 7.8 percent) and SDY (down 4.1%.)  These benchmarks are intended to reflect the performance of clean energy dividend stocks and general of dividend stocks, respectively.  Non-income oriented indexes such as the...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Looking forward to 2019, I'm more optimistic than I have been since the start of 2016, in the wake of the popping of the YieldCo Bubble in late 2015. The bear market that started in late 2018 seems like it's far from over, but I expect in early 2019 will see it enter a less chaotic phase.  After the wild declines and swings of late 2018, I expect investors will begin the new year with an eye to safety more than growth.  This means that the clean energy income stocks which are my focus should outperform...

by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA At the start of November, I abandoned my short-term bearish stance on the market, writing "I’m not confident that the correction is over, but we seem to be heading into a temporary lull, and so I’m going to abandon cash as my top pick for November."  This turned out to be a good call, with my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio up 4.3% for the month, slightly behind its broad dividend income benchmark, SDY, which was up 4.9%.    Its clean energy income benchmark YLCO gained 1.6%, as did the private portfolio I manage, the...

Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA After a fairly brutal September and October my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio is barely hanging on to positive territory for the year (up 2.4%) as is the private portfolio I manage, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP, up 0.8%).  Yet I can take comfort in superior relative performance, since my broad dividend income benchmark SDY is now down 0.1% for the year, and the clean energy income benchmark YLCO has fallen 5.8%.  All returns are total return after fees and dividends. The strong relative performance in a weak market is most likely due to...

As you can see from the chart, September was a tough month for my model portfolio of Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2018.  Seaspan (SSW) fell back on trade war fears and Green Plains Partners (GPP) fell on ethanol market weakness caused by retaliatory ethanol tariffs and the Trump EPA's continued undermining of the Renewable Fuel Standard.  I'm less sure why Covanta (CVA) is down, but Clearway Energy's (CWEN and CWEN-A formerly NRG Yield) small decline is due to a recent secondary offering. Two of these (CVA and GPP) were my top picks last month, while the third was Terraform Power (TERP). ...

Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA July and August saw some mild recovery for the stock market after a difficult first half of 2018.  Clean energy income stocks continue to lag the broader market, but my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio has managed to maintain its lead over its broad market benchmark. Through August 31st, the model portfolio is up 7.5%, compared to its broad dividend income benchmark SDY, which is up 5.3%.  Its clean energy income benchmark YLCO is down 1.2, even after dividend income.  The private portfolio I manage, the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio (GGEIP), is slightly behind the...