Stocks We Love to Hate
Investing in clean energy is both an economic and a moral decision. From an economic perspective, I believe that constrained supplies of fossil fuels (not just Peak Oil, but also Peak Coal and Natural Gas) are leading to a permanent rise in the value of all forms of energy. From a moral perspective, I know that we and the vast majority of our children are limited to this one planet for generations to come, so we should abuse it as little as possible, so, of all the possible forms of energy to invest in, clean energy (Renewable and...
The Week In Cleantech (Apr. 13 – Apr. 19) – Buffett Encore
This week, IMF officials voiced strong concerns over current biofuels policies in the US and Europe. On Friday, the head of the IMF claimed that biofuels posed nothing short of a moral problem for the West, and that he would support a moratorium on biofuels made from foodstuffs. Also on Friday, the IMF's Chief Economist called biofuels "a new form of protectionism" that is "now front and center in global geopolitics." For anyone who's been reading the news over the past month, you can't help but agree with this assessment. With food prices now rising in real terms for...
Lunch With Warren Buffett
Tom couldn't attend to his usual Monday column this week so he asked me to step in. My own investing has been partially on hold over the past couple of months as I have been watching developments in the markets, so I figured I would open the week with something a little lighter albeit not entirely unrelated to alt energy and cleantech investing. Deflating Valuations = Happy Value Investors One of the good things about the current state of equity markets for alt energy investors is that several great company's stocks that had been trading at...
Money and Reduced Emissions Don’t Sell Energy Efficiency, but Comfort and Health Do
As an expert witness in an energy efficiency ("Demand Side Management" or DSM in utility-speak) docket before the Colorado Public Utilities Commission, I have been making the case that non-energy benefits of energy efficiency measures such as the increased safety and comfort of an efficiently operating home need to be included in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency programs. There has been much resistance to the inclusion of these benefits, mainly because they can be difficult to quantify. Yet we omit them at our peril. Why Energy Efficiency and Health Matter Last summer, I explored why the...
New Flyer: A Clean Way to Play Extreme Peak Oil Scenarios
Tom Konrad I'm more than a little obsessed with finding investments which will increase with the price of oil, but not contribute to global warming. This is quite tricky, because most forms of renewable energy produce electricity, which we cannot use in our current fleet of cars. Biofuels ( even cellulosic) can be used in cars, but are limited by supply of feedstock, and by the environmental degradation that growing and collecting biofuel feedstocks can cause. Not to mention the impact on food prices (despite the fact that this may help poor farmers even as it hurts poor...
The Week In Cleantech (Mar. 30 to Apr. 4) – Sawdust Futures, Anyone?
On Sunday, Aline van Duyn argued that businesses face clean water scarcity risks. Arguments about business risk and water scarcity, or about investing in water as the next hot commodity, come and go, but nothing ever seems to stick. This is probably because very few companies have yet managed to make big bucks from water problems. However, on the risk side, things could materialize sooner than some think. Question: what's put Canada on the map globally, attracted vast amounts of capital, has all oil majors in a stampede, and is (tacitly) key to America's plans for a safe and...
Current Picks: Busses and Energy Efficiency
Over the weekend, EnergyTechStocks published two articles based on an interview with me. The first was about my conviction that Peak Oil induced rising gas prices is going to lead to a rush into mass transit building by cities, or investing in mode-shifting last September. I've since written about opportunities in rail transit stocks, (P.TO, TRN, PRPX, and WAB), and more recently Hedging your peak oil risk with your lifestyle. However, I have been frustrated until now that the only pure play bus stock I've been able to find is Firstgroup PLC (FGP.L, FGROF.PK), the British based owner of...
When to Sell: Five Rules of Thumb
A common complaint about investment writers is that we are always willing to tell you the next stock to buy, but we don't always get around to telling you when to sell. I'm as guilty of this as most: generally, I write about the stocks I'm interested in... which are the ones I'm buying, not selling. And, although I write the occasional negative article (Petrosun Drilling most recently, but also US Sustainable Energy and Global Resource Corporation), these were more stocks to avoid, rather than stocks which had seen their run. This is unlikely to change. For a start,...
The Week in Cleantech, March 24 to March 28, 2008:Â Truckers Slow Down, Algae and...
On Sunday, Maria Manka at the Green Options Blog asked if branding will be blowing in the wind farms. On Monday, Utility analyst Daniel Scotto warned of increasing power outages in an interview with EnergyTechStocks. On Tuesday, Will Dunham at Reuters broke the news of another large chuck of the Antarctic ice shelf disintegrating. On Wednesday, Marianne Lavelle of Beyond the Barrel rolled out the news of truckers backing a national 65 mph speed limit to save gas (and money.) On Thursday, Katie Fehrenbacher at Earth2Tech listed...
Behavioural Transit
Investors act in irrational, but predictably irrational, ways. That is the basic tenet of Behavioral Economics. (Looking for references, I came across an interesting book by that title, by the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Behavioral Economics at MIT’s Sloan School of Management.) For me, these predictable irrationalities provide ways to profit from the mistakes of others in the market, so long as I do not fall into the same (or other) cognitive traps which cause the market opportunities in the first place. I describe one such technique in this article. Applications to Policy Design In addition to those...
Neutralizing Your Peak Oil Risk
by Tom Konrad Lifestyle Risks from Peak Oil In the US, we all have a large exposure to the risk of rising energy prices. In addition to the cost of gasoline, the whole US economy runs on oil, so a rise in the oil price is likely to affect our jobs, and the prices of all our assets, including our homes. If other people have less money to spend and invest because of high oil prices, there will be a fall in demand for anything they were buying or investing in. House prices in exurbs and suburbs where the...
The Week in Cleantech, March 16 to March 21, 2008:Â Solar is Booming, But So...
On Tuesday, Michael Hoexter at RenewableEnergyWorld covered the increasing number of companies constructing Concentrating Solar Power plants around the world. Dave Room at EcoLocalizer reported on a new model for residential solar purchasing: 24 neighbors banded together to put out their own Request For Proposals (RFP.) On Wednesday, Big Gav at Peak Energy rounded up stories on a less talked about biofuel, biogas, which I prefer to ethanol and biodiesel because of the superior crop yields in terms of miles per acre. Miles per acre was big on the blogs this week, with both me and...
Geothermal, Battery, and Solar LED articles in TQ
There were three excellent alternative energy articles in last week's Technology Quarterly from the Economist. Readers know I'm an avid battery investor, and the Economist's in depth History of the Battery is well worth reading for anyone who wants to gain insight into the promises and challenges awaiting developers and investors. My favorite battery investment, Electro Energy, last profiled here has seen considerable selling, having lost half its price since its peak in early January. I still like the and own the stock. There is also a short article about the prospects for Enhanced Geothermal, one of my favorite...
Will Petrosun’s Algae Biodiesel Grow on Investors?
by Tom Konrad Celluslosic Ethanol is all the rage. A less noticed, but significant "Biofuel 2.0" is biofuel based on algae. Follow the Biomass As I have consistently argued (see these recent articles on John Deere, Biogas, Cellulosic Ethanol vs Biomass Electricity, and Renewable or Green Diesel) the people most likely to make money from biofuel are not the processors and distributors (who compete directly with petroleum or other fossil fuel-based products, and so have little pricing power), but the producers of feedstock, which, like oil, is in very limited supply, and so they will have pricing power....
The Week in Cleantech, March 9 to March 15, 2008: CARB may Kill Your...
jcwinnie at After Gutenberg detailed the Mcgyan process which promises to convert a much array of oil feedstocks into biodiesel with a reusable catalyst and less waste. AutoblogGreen plugged us in to Zap's new Prius PHEV conversion kit, but Green Car Congress brought us a study that warned we might need to do some serious water planning before such too many people start using them. On Monday, Craig Rubens at Earth-to-Tech painted a picture of a new photovoltaic coating from Corus Colors. On Wednesday, David Erlich at Cleantech.com rolled out the story of GE's...
Edison International Says Solar is the Great Untapped Resource
Cleantech Blog had a conversation last year with Stuart Hemphill, now the newly appointed Vice President for Renewables and Alternative Energy at Southern California Edison, a subsidiary of Edison International (NYSE:EIX), one of the largest purchasers of renewable power in the US. We caught up with him again today in a lively discussion around his predictions for the renewable sector. Today they are announcing their sixth competitive solicitation for renewable energy. On peak delivery from the Tehachapi region is preferred, as they are currently building a massive transmission line to tap into the 4,500 MW of wind potential....