The Best Peak Oil Investments: Shimano
Tom Konrad CFA I missed Shimano (SHMDF.PK) in my recent list of bicycle and scooter stocks, but in many ways, Shimano is the best of the lot. Shimano Inc. manufactures bicycle components and fishing and rowing gear, with the bike segment accounting for about four-fifths of sales, but I had not realized that they were public until I received a note from a reader in response to my recent article on bike and moped stocks. In that article, I noted that, while bike sales rose in response to rising oil prices in 2008, bicycle repairs surged...
New Flyer Consolidates Leading Position in Transit Bus and Parts Markets
Tom Konrad CFA On June 21st, leading North American heavy-duty transit bus manufacturer New Flyer Industries (TSX:NFI, OTC:NFYEF) announced the acquisition of its third largest competitor, North American Bus Industries from private equity firm Cerberus Capital. The following Monday, New Flyer management held a call to discuss the acquisition with analysts. Here are the highlights. Cost and Financing: The C$84 million cost to New Flyer consists almost entirely of the assumption and discharge of NABI’s existing debt. This will be funded with C$64 million by issuing to the world’s second largest bus maker Marcopolo S.A. for C$10.50 a...
The Best Peak Oil Investments: Three Mass Transit Operators
Tom Konrad, CFA Government budgets are putting pressure on mass transit operators, but the best public companies are likely to benefit from the trend. Three recent Economist articles led me to question my assumption that rising oil prices should be good for mass transit operators. In the August 19th edition, there was an article about mass transit service cuts in Atlanta, as well as one about the likelihood of rising rail fares in Britain. In crisis, there is also opportunity. Reading beyond the gloomy headline of the Atlanta article, it becomes clear that the...
Manufacturers Going All Out for Self-driving Car Tech
There is a clutch of self-driving cars and cars with autonomous driving features on the market today. Drivers just cannot seem to get enough of them. Apparently, the idea of zooming down the highway with little to no responsibility holds considerable appeal. Then again, maybe it is the novelty of the idea that will eventually give way to the next fad.
In August 2018, Cox Automotive revealed the results of a survey that found fewer Americans are embracing self-driving technology than previously thought. A surprising 49% of respondents said they would NEVER own a fully-autonomous car. This is up from 30% naysayers two years ago. Views...
The Best Peak Oil Investments: Pure-Play Mass Transit Suppliers
Tom Konrad CFA I'm attempting to bring this series on peak oil stocks to a conclusion in which I can choose five stocks that should benefit from rising oil prices. One sector I feel should be represented is suppliers to mass transit companies, but I only looked at the percentage of revenues coming from mass transit and rail when I brought you my list of nine mass transit stocks. From that list, the following companies get substantially all their revenues from mass transit, passenger rail, or rail freight: New Flyer Industries (NFYIF.PK/NFI-UN.TO), is the largest manufacturer...
Historic Oil/Gas and Gas/Coal prices provide opportunity for fuel switching
Oil Gas and Coal Gas Ratio That sound you hear is the stampede of shale gas drillers away from dry gas plays. The irrational exuberance of shale gas drillers, chief amongst them Chesapeake's voluble Aubrey McLendon, is leading to an impressive destruction of capital. The long run marginal cost is significantly above the current spot price. With natural gas storage bursting at the seams, natural gas is reverting to its historical nuisance byproduct as drilling moves to liquid rich plays. While not sustainable in the long term, the present pricing situation presents opportuinities to...
Buying Opportunity at Renewable Energy REIT, Courtesy of Disgruntled Shareholder
Tom Konrad CFA Power REIT (AMEX:PW) aims to be the first renewable energy infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT). The Renewable Energy REIT Renewable energy advocates have been calling for a change in the tax laws to allow renewable energy within the REIT structure. A REIT is allowed to pass profits directly through to investors. These profits are not subject to double-taxation like most corporate profits. Owning shares of a renewable REIT would be much like owning a slice of a wind or solar farm. This would open up the renewable energy investment opportunity to everyone, not just...
The Best Peak Oil Investments: Nine Mass Transit Stocks
Tom Konrad CFA In 2007 and 2008, high gasoline prices gave a large boost to mass transit ridership. Here are the stocks that might benefit if that scenario repeats itself. Americans are notoriously attached to their cars, but high oil prices in 2007 and 2008 led many to get on a bus or train. According to a 2009 paper Transit Ridership Models: Present Status and Future Needs by Grace Galluci and John D Allen, Ph.D. from Chicago's Regional Transportation Authority, current published transit ridership models do not yet incorporate changes in gasoline prices. The authors consider...
List of Alternative Transportation Stocks
Alternative Transportation Stocks are publicly traded companies that offer transportation options that use less fuel per passenger-mile or freight-mile than traditional options. Includes mass transit (both rail and bus), bicycles, and two wheel vehicles.
A. P. Moller - Maersk Group (MAERSK-B.CO)
Accell Group (ACCEL.AS)
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD)
Bombardier Inc (BDRBF)
Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles (0MK5.L)
CSR Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive (ZHUZF)
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)
CSX Corporation (CSX)
Cubic Corporation (CUB)
Dorel Industries (DIIBF)
Firstgroup, PLC (FGP.L)
Giant Manufacturing (9921.TW)
Grande West Transportation Group Inc. (BUS.V)
Great Lakes Dredge and Dock (GLDD)
Greenbrier (GBX)
L. B. Foster (FSTR)
Merida Industry Co. Ltd. (9914.TW)
National Express Group (NEX.L)
New Flyer Industries (NFYEF, NFI.TO)
Norfolk...
The New Golden Age of Railroads
John Petersen Did you know that both Warren Buffett and Bill Gates have billion dollar investments in railroads? If so, did you ever wonder why? For Mr. Buffett, it's an indirect investment through Berkshire Hathaway, which bought the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad outright in February of last year. For Mr. Gates, it's a direct 10.04% stake in Canadian National Railway. The reason is simple. Railroads are the cheapest, cleanest and most energy efficient ground transportation networks in the world, which effectively guarantees them an increasingly important role as the world comes to grips with...
Another Chance To Buy Power REIT On The Cheap
Tom Konrad CFA An earlier version of this article appeared on the author's Forbes blog on June 3rd. An article about Power REIT (NYSE:PW) that came out on Seeking Alpha on May 30th has sent some investors running for the hills. The article has since been removed from Seeking Alpha. According to PW's CEO, David Lesser, Seeking Alpha’s editorial staff concluded that it had reached unsupported and erroneous conclusions after discussions with him and Ryan Griffin, the article’s author. Ryan Griffin told me that he did not have time to respond to the...
The Four Best Peak Oil Investments
Tom Konrad CFA The best four stocks I've found in my six month quest to find the best peak oil investments. I apologize for being a tease. Since March, I've been writing this series I've called "The Best Peak Oil Investments," but in many cases what I've actually done is to warn readers to stay away from particular sectors. This bait-and-switch was compounded for my syndicated readers at Seeking Alpha when their editors decided to re-title the early articles in this series "Peak Oil Investments I'm Putting My Money On." If you've stuck...
Great Lakes Dredge and Dock (GLDD), An Oil Spill Cleanup Stock
Tom Konrad, CFA Great Lakes Dredge and Dock is curiously in the center of a many emerging trends, some of which are not yet being talked about. I've been watching Great Lakes Dredge and Dock (GLDD) for a few months as a possible alternative transportation stock to talk about for my Best Peak Oil Investments series. My thinking goes like this: barge and river transport are two of the most fuel efficient ways to move bulk cargo. Barges are even more energy efficient than rail freight for most uses, according to the Congressional Budget Office. One...
The Best Peak Oil Investments: Accell and Six Other Bicycle Stocks
Tom Konrad CFA This article gathers all the bicycle and e-bike stocks I've found in one place, and takes a look at a recent find: Accell Group (ACCEL.AS). When I first became interested in alternative transportation as a peak-oil investing theme in late 2007, I was frustrated at my inability to find very many good alternative transportation stocks: The list of bike stocks I found was already very out-of date, and the lists of rail transit and bus companies I found did not distinguish between publicly traded companies I could invest in, and private companies I could...
Ebay: A Sustainable Social Distancing Stock
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Of the few survivors of the dot com bust, Ebay (EBAY) is a perennial also-ran. It owned the market for consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions in 2000, but has since repeatedly lost market share. Nevertheless, the company remains a profitable business that enables the sustainable reuse of easy to ship items while returning cash to investors.
Note: My supporters on Patreon got an early look at this article. Want to support my work and get previews of my writing? Join them here.
The Competition for Sellers
In the early 2000s, Ebay lost sellers to Amazon's (AMZN) marketplace, which had the...
Less Well Known Autonomous Car Stocks
Car manufacturers have fully embraced self-driving or autonomous cars. It is not because they have heard a loud clamor for such technology from consumers. No, automakers are keen on the idea because manufacture of self-driving cars could help them overcome the short comings of highly cyclical sales pattern associated with its car dependent upon a single driver. In other words, they are in it for themselves whether consumers benefit or not.
If consumers are not so important, at least investors should benefit. Besides the car manufacturers there are a few smaller companies that can give investors a taste of the self-driving car phenomenon.
LiDar and...
