Energy Storage: A Turbulent Second Quarter Foretells Major Changes

John Petersen The second quarter was a turbulent period for investors in the energy storage and vehicle electrification sectors. Johnson Controls (JCI), C&D Technologies (CHHP.PK) and the enchanted, mystical, gravity defying Tesla Motors (TSLA) were up a little. Everybody else was down as fear, loathing and uncertainty ran rampant and the congenital birth defects of EVs and batteries to power them proved to be insurmountable obstacles for all but St. Elon of Palo Alto, the patron saint of expensive toys. While the second quarter wasn't pleasant for most of the companies I track, I draw some comfort...

Electric Cars, The Insanity Escalates

John Petersen On January 28th the DOE announced the closing of a $1.4 billion ATVM loan to Nissan North America, a unit of Nissan Motors (NSANY), for the purpose of retooling a factory in Smyrna, Tennessee to produce the Leaf, a zero emission electric car that will be released later this year. Nissan will use the loan proceeds to create "up to 1,300 American jobs" at a cost of about $1.3 million each and the 200,000 Leafs it hopes to produce and sell each year will "conserve up to 65.4 million gallons" of gas, a whopping 327 gallons...

NREL Researchers Prove the Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility in Electric Drive

John Petersen In the most under-reported cleantech story of the year, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have used an impressive array of computational and modeling tools to prove that the Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility, which holds that the first unit of consumption of a good or service yields more utility than the second and subsequent units, doesn't have a loophole for plug-in vehicles. The penultimate slide from an NREL presentation at Plug-in 2011 says it all – and proves beyond doubt that cars with plugs are less effective at saving fuel and reducing emissions than...

The Best Peak Oil Investments, Part II: Hydrogen and Vehicle Electrification

Tom Konrad CFA There are many proposed solutions to the liquid fuels scarcity caused by stagnating (and eventually falling) oil supplies combined with growing demand in emerging economies.  Some will be good investments, others won't.  Here is where I'm putting my money, and why.  This second part looks at hydrogen and electrification strategies for replacing oil. In Part I of this series, I listed four potential substitutes that have been proposed to replace oil as limited supply and growth in developing markets draw oil away from traditional users.  I've since added a fifth to my list...

EPA Says VW Running Massive Clean Air Scam

Jim Lane  VW is facing up to $18.07 billion in fines; recalls, mandatory vehicle emission fixes on the horizon; investigations underway at EPA and in California as “defeat devices” uncovered that evade clean air regulations. In Washington, EPA issued a notice of violation of the Clean Air Act to Volkswagen AG, Audi AG, and Volkswagen Group of America, Inc. alleging that four-cylinder Volkswagen and Audi diesel cars from model years 2009-2015 carry a “defeat device” which circumvents EPA emissions standards for certain air pollutants. Specifically, the EPA alleges that a sophisticated software algorithm on certain Volkswagen vehicles detects...

Toyota Says It May Put Gas-Electric Engines in All Its Vehicles

Toyota said it's aiming to increase hybrid production by 60 percent in 2006 and will cut costs and prices to make them more affordable. "In the future, the cars you see from Toyota will be 100 percent hybrid,'' Toyota Executive Vice President Kazuo Okamoto said in Frankfurt, declining to give a time for achieving the target. "We believe that in 10 years the world will be filled with hybrids.''

Hybrid Technologies and the California Highway Patrol ‘CHP’ to Showcase Hybrid’s Lithium Powered Chopper...

Hybrid Technologies Inc. (HYBT) is proud to announce that the historic CHP memorial chopper powered by the Hybrid Technologies Lithium system will be presented to media and the public in a ceremonial CHP ride across California. The initial press conference will be held in Los Angeles, California and is part of a CHP and CAHP weeklong event surrounding graduation and memorial services for the legendary California Highway Patrol.

The Pros Pick Three Green IT Stocks For 2014

Tom Konrad CFA Green 2014 image via BigStock Being green is not all about wind turbines and solar panels.  In fact, it’s usually greener to be smarter about using what we have than to replace it with something new, no matter how green. My panel of professional green money managers understands this.  When I asked them each for their top three green stock picks for 2014, there were as many picks focused on smarter resource use as there were solar stocks. I recently gave...

Debunking The PHEV Mythology

John Petersen This week has been fascinating because of three articles that found their way to my computer. The first was a thematic piece in McKinsey Quarterly titled "Profiting from the low-carbon economy" that included a carbon abatement cost graph which showed full hybrid automobiles (HEVs) offered CO2 abatement savings of roughly $50 per ton while plug-in hybrid automobiles (PHEVs) imposed CO2 abatement costs of roughly $20 per ton, or slightly more than a nuclear power plant. The second was GM's widely publicized announcement that the Volt would get 230 miles per gallon. The third was...

Keynes Meets Carson, And How You Can Invest It (Part 1)

I'm not sure whether John Maynard Keynes, the father of Keynesian economics and an ardent proponent of government interventionism during hard economic times, and Rachel Carson, the mother of modern environmentalism and the author whose work is credited for the eventual creation of the EPA, ever met during their lifetimes. But if current voter sentiment holds until November 4, their ideas could soon converge and form the basis of government policy for at least the next four years. Let me explain. First, John Maynard Keynes. There is no doubt that the deliberate and coordinated nationalization of financial services...

Clean Energy Stocks Shopping List: Transport

Stocks may be expensive now, but they won't be forever.  Five Peak Oil plays to buy when they're cheap again: Two busses, two rails, and an ETF. Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA Two weeks ago, I told you why I feel that the market is more likely to head down than up from here (it's been flat since then.)  I've been selling covered calls on my holdings, several of which have been called away.  I plan to sit on the cash until the market has fallen at least 10%, after which I may start selling cash covered puts, but I...

SatCon’s Hybrid Electric Vehicle and Pulse Power Technology is Awarded ARL Contract

SatCon Technology Corporation (SATC) announced that it has been awarded a contract with the U. S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) to assist in the development of power conversion electronics and controls in two key technology areas. These are power control and conversion systems for hybrid electric vehicles and pulse energy applications such as active armor. The contract has a current value of $2.8 million through 2007.

Westport: Likely Beneficiary Of A Potential Quadrupling Of US Natural Gas Vehicles Sales by...

by Clean Energy Intel Companies with significant exposure to the market for natural gas transportation have obviously received a lot of attention recently following the announcement last week of a co-marketing agreement for LNG transportation between oil major Shell (RDS-A) and Westport (WPRT), a provider of natural gas engine technology. This makes the release of Pike's new annual global sales forecasts for natural gas vehicles particularly timely and worth a look. According to Pike Research, there are currently 12.6 million natrual gas vehicles (NGVs) in the world. These are mainly located in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa....

Electric Vehicle and Lithium-ion Battery Investing For Imbeciles

John Petersen In their 1969 bestseller "The Peter Principle" Laurence Peter and Raymond Hull quoted a Latin-American student named Caesare Innocente who lamented, "Professor Peter, I'm afraid that what I want to know is not answered by all my studying. I don't know whether the world is run by smart men who are, how you Americans say, putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it." After watching the events of the last few weeks, I think most of my regular readers would agree that the imbeciles are clearly steering the ship. Last March I went...

USPS Study: EV Economics Depend On Smart-Grid Revenue

John Petersen On August 28th, the Office of the Inspector General of the U.S. Postal Service published the results of a feasibility study titled, "Electrification of Delivery Vehicles." While the feasibility study reaches a foregone conclusion and recommends the purchase of a 3,000 unit demonstration fleet, I was surprised by the high level of Federal subsidies the Inspector General thought necessary to bring EVs within Postal Service capital investment policies. I was even more surprised by the conclusion that the tipping point in the economic analysis was revenue from ancillary vehicle to grid, or V2G, services. The...

How Growing HEV Markets Will Impact Battery Manufacturing Revenues

John Petersen For the last three weeks I've been writing about why rising oil prices, tightened CO2 emission standards in Europe and accelerated CAFE standards in the U.S. will combine to foster rapid implementation of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) technology in the automotive industry and result in huge revenue increases for all automotive battery manufacturers. These articles have generated record numbers of comments and questions from readers that want a clearer understanding of what the rapidly changing demand picture means for battery investors. While I generally try to avoid revenue forecasts because they require pricing assumptions...
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