Eight Upsides of the New Ethanol
Jim Lane Eight technologies, seven public stocks – who’s adopting what, who’s in the lead? Perhaps you have written off ethanol as a bum investment. That’s understandable. Though, as a general rule, all acts of mind-closing should be made while chanting Michael Dell’s mantra from 1997, writing off Apple as a bum investment. It’s a good chant, you could try it. Here’s how it goes. “What would I do?” Hari Rama. “I’d shut it down.” Rama Krishna. “And give the money back”. Krishna Rama. “To the shareholders.” Rama Rama. Missing the biggest gold rush. Krishna Hari....
Renewable Fuels’ Dunkirk
by Jim Lane
It’s been a very busy week in Washington DC, the high point being a letter to seven senators sent late Thursday by EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, who took significant (and as of a few days ago, unexpected) steps toward strengthening the foundation for ethanol and renewable fuels.
The truth? It’s a Trump Administration back-down. EPA overreached on de-clawing the Renewable Fuel Standard on behalf on some grumpy oilpatch donors (known as GODs), and the Trump Administration managed to revive a Grand Alliance around renewable fuels — one that now includes almost 40 members of the United States Senate,...
Biofuels Industry Reacts To The New RVO Requirements
by Jim Lane
What a whirlwind weekend after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced their final renewable volume obligations (RVO) under the Renewable Fuel Standard program for 2019. “It’s just numbers,” some say, but oh no, not in the biofuels world. It’s never just numbers. This time it’s about waivers, fixing the damage done, and ensuring a bright future for biofuels. It’s about hollow chocolate bunnies and two steps back for some.
French mathematician Rene Descartes is best known for “I think, therefore I am,” but he also said “Perfect numbers, like perfect men, are rare.” So true in this case as not...
Ethanol Producers Climb to New Highs
Shares of ethanol producers extended their recent rally Monday, as oil refiners continued their rush to substitute ethanol for a toxic gasoline additive before the summer driving season shifts into gear. The enthusiasm for ethanol is tied to the fate of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), an additive mixed into gasoline to reduce pollution. However, studies have found that MTBE to be carcinogenic if it seeps into a water source. States are increasingly banning MBTE due to contamination concerns. Companies wishing to comply with new laws and worried about the potential for legal liability are...
EPA increases US Renewable Fuel Standard Volumes, But Only Slightly
Jim Lane In Washington, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced final volume requirements under the Renewable Fuel Standard program today for the years 2014, 2015 and 2016, and final volume requirements for biomass-based diesel for 2014 to 2017. This rule finalizes higher volumes of renewable fuel than the levels EPA proposed in June, boosting renewable production and providing support for robust, achievable growth of the biofuels industry. “The biofuel industry is an incredible American success story, and the RFS program has been an important driver of that successcutting carbon pollution, reducing our dependence on foreign oil, and sparking...
Should Ethanol Subsidies be Renewed?
Jeff Coombe The Ethanol industry has only responded tepidly to the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit in the past, so why should it be renewed? The U.S. ethanol industry is nearing a major deadline. The industry's primary subsidy mechanism, the Volumetric Ethanol Excise Tax Credit (VEETC), is set to expire on December 31, 2010. Federal ethanol subsidies were worth roughly $5 billion in 2009, a figure large enough to create vigorous debate over their renewal. Some call the credits a boondoggle, others a vitally important lifeline for an industry still in its formative years. ...
Lessons From Tesla: Building An Ethanol Market
Jim Lane E85 ethanol? Been stuck with low sales for years – with producers pointing to “no market access”. Yet, Tesla was faced with “no market access” and built its own market. What lessons can be learned? Last week, Tesla Motors (NASD:TSLA) announced the completion of its transcontinental US Supercharger Corridor, a network of stations that enable Model S owners to (somewhat) rapidly recharge their Teslas on a cross-country drove. And intrepid Tesla blgger Hamish McKenzie relayed the news last week that two Tesla Model S sedans completed a 76-hour coast-to-coast all-electric crossing. The news follows...
The Future of Alternative Fuels: Ethanol
Besides a slew of clean car announcements connected to the North American International Auto Show, the alt energy topic that has made media and blog headlines most often over the past week has been alternative fuels. We are thus going to run a 2-part series on alternative fuels this week as follows: ethanol today and coal-to-liquids tomorrow. ETHANOL: INVESTOR FRIEND OR FOE? I’m going to start this post with a statement of opinion: I don’t really like corn-based ethanol (as an investment), I never have, and, as a result, I haven’t followed this space as closely as...
Green Plains’ Cattle Drive
As quickly as the ethanol producer jumped into the cattle business, Green Plains (GPRE: Nasdaq) has sold off half of its Green Plains Cattle Company to a group of investment funds for $77 million. Operating at six locations in Colorado, Kansas, Texas and Missouri, the company has the capacity to feed 355,000 head of cattle each year. The cattle business contributed $271 million to total revenue in the most recently reported quarter ending June 2019, delivering a modest operating profit near $7.3 million.
There has been considerable stress in the feed cattle industry. The number of cattle in feedlots is down compared to last year, an unusual development...
Current Structure of the US Ethanol Industry “Problematic”, Says the IMF
The International Monetary Fund released its Spring 2007 World Economic Forecast today. Fuel Vs. Food There is a short sub-section in Appendix 1.1 ("Recent Developments in Commodity Markets") that I thought might be worth sharing with you. If you download the PDF version of the report and scroll down to page 44, you will find the said sub-section under the heading "Food and Biofuels". In it, the IMF notes that food prices (as measured by its own food price index) rose by 10% in 2006, driven partly by a poor wheat crop in certain countries but...
Clearfish Research Profiles Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) is building a refinery in California for corn based ethanol production in the heart of the California agricultural and dairy land (the biggest agricultural and dairy producer in the country). The refinery is supposed to come on line in Q4 2006, and there are plans for 4 more subsequent refineries. As there is unlikely to be any increased ethanol demand in California (see background above), the supply capacity they are bringing online must be able to disrupt the current out-of-state supply and/or undercut the current prices. They are one of the biggest distributors of that alternate...
Coskata’s $100 million IPO: The 10-Minute Version
Jim Lane The first gas fermentation technology to come to the public markets: Coskata files its $100 million IPO. Here’s our 10-minute version of the filing, with a translation of the risks into English. In Illinois, Coskata has filed an S-1 registration statement for a proposed $100 million initial public offering. The number of shares to be offered in the proposed offering and the price range for the offering have not yet been determined. The lead book-running managers for the offering are Citigroup, Barclays and Piper Jaffray. The company is currently ranked #17 in the world...
Dyadic International (DYAI.PK): Update
Tom Konrad, CFA Representatives of Dyadic International (DYAI.OB) were quite upset when I called the company "A Stock to Avoid." The company has now released audited financial statements for 2007 and 2008. The lack of such statements was one of the several reasons I said to avoid the company. Should I retract my article? Mark Emalfarb, Dyadic International's CEO sent me an email this morning with attached audited financial statements for 2007 and 2008, saying, I hope that you will act responsibly as journalists and publish a retraction to your article "A Stock To Avoid" which Tom...
7 Bleeding-Edge Technologies Reinventing First-gen Ethanol Plants
Jim Lane The US Ethanol Fleet reinvents as super-advanced technologies target the old fleet for new purposes. Ethanol Plant Photo via BigStock For some time, perhaps one of the toughest assets to manage in the Western World possibly the Milky Way Galaxy or even the local galaxy group has been a starch ethanol plant. They’ve been through it all, just about. Food vs fuel, indirect land-use change, the ethanol blend wall, attacks on the RFS from cattle and dairy interests, attacked on ethanol tax credits,...
Green Plains Primes The Pump
by Debra Fiakas CFA Ethanol producer Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. (GPRE: Nasdaq) announced today plans to build a fuel terminal point in Beaumont, Texas. The terminal will be located at a facility owned by Green Plains’ partner in the venture, Jefferson Gulf Coast Energy Partners. It will be helpful to have a friend in the project that is expected to cost $55 million to complete just ethanol storage and throughput capacity. Planned storage capacity is equivalent to 500,000 barrels, with the potential to expand to 1.0 million barrels. Capacity to handle biofuels or other...
North American Outlook on Biofuels Challenges and Opportunities
Challenges and Opportunities in Biofuels
By Steve Hartig, Former VP of Technology Development at ICM
The North American biofuels market can be split into three main segments all of which have major dynamics. What I would like to do is give a high-level overview of what I see as some of both the challenges and opportunities across these.
Ethanol which is a produced from corn and sorghum in about 200 plants mainly across the Midwest and blended at about 10% with gas. Majors such as POET, Green Plains, Flint Hills, Valero, ADM and Cargill do a bit more than half of the 16...
