Are Ethanol Companies Risky Investments?
By Neal Dikeman, Partner, Jane Capital Partners LLC, and Founding Contributor, Cleantechblog.com. He has no investments in or financial incentive related to ethanol or ethanol stocks. Are ethanol stocks risky long-term investments? We think they are. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of ethanol blended fuels for a whole host of reasons, I just don’t like ethanol as an investment. Here are six solid reasons to be very, very cautious. 1. Demand vs. supply – As with most regulatory driven markets, the demand has come on very fast behind the advent of renewable...
ADM and Siouxland Ethanol Announce Marketing Agreement
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) and Siouxland Ethanol LLC are pleased to announce the formation of an ethanol marketing agreement. As part of this marketing agreement, ADM will market all ethanol produced by Siouxland Ethanol at its forthcoming 50 million gallon Jackson, Nebraska facility. Construction has begun and the plant is expected to be operational in early 2007. In addition to producing ethanol, the plant will produce an estimated 165,000 tons of distiller grains on an annual basis.
Earnings Roundup: Covanta, NFI Group, Green Plains Partners
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Earnings Season Continues
Below are three more updates on second quarter earnings which I've been sharing with my Patreon supporters. If you'd like to support my writing and see those thoughts in a more timely manner, consider becoming a patron. becoming a patron.
For everyone else, I'm reprinting those thoughts below.
Covanta Earnings
(published August 2nd)
Waste to energy company Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) saw most of its business recovering towards the end of the second quarter. Management is reluctant to predict if the positive trend will continue into the third quarter and for the rest of the year, but...
The Ethanol Industry’s Persecution Complex
If the Ethanol industry is going to rehabilitate its image, it needs to understand the issues. Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA In his opening remarks at the 25th annual, 2009 Fuel Ethanol Workshop, Mike Bryan, the CEO of BBI International called on the attendees to "Take back control of the industry's image." It's no secret that the ethanol industry is having problems, mostly, in my mind, due to a classic commodity squeeze: the industry has no pricing power either for its inputs (corn and natural gas,) or its products (ethanol, with a price which closely tracks gasoline.) ...
Trump Takes Down Ethanol in Pincer Move
by Debra Fiakas, CFA
The Trump Administration is using tariffs on China goods as a trade war tactic to pressure China into relenting to U.S. trade policy demands. Unfortunately, the fallout has been heavy and widespread. Farmers have taken the heaviest hits as China has dropped orders for corn and soybeans. Ethanol producers have been ensnared in the trade war skirmish as well and in recent weeks have been caught an uncomfortable ‘pincer-like’ squeeze by the Trump Administration.
Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency has continued its practice of granting waivers to oil and gas refiners, eliminating the requirement to blend biofuel with the refiners’ petroleum...
Ten Solid Clean Energy Companies to Buy on the Cheap: #7 Deere & Co....
The first and last word in any discussion of biofuels should always be "Feedstock." Feedstock is the "Bio" out of which biofuels will eventually be made, whether it be corn, sugar, jatropha, algae, palm oil, switchgrass, forestry waste, or municipal solid waste. Before the era of peak oil, we lived in a world of plenty, which meant that we could squander energy, not only by driving Hummers, but by feeding energy intensive products such as corn crops to livestock, and by dumping "free" sources of energy such as garden waste and used cooking oil into landfills. The era of...
The API Bushwhacks Ethanol
Jim Lane Who’s right, in the fight of their lives over E15 ethanol blending? Whose data’s a Looney Tune, whose is from the real-world? Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute, in an apparent impression of Yosemite Sam, held a press conference in DC to highlight a new report from the Coordinating Research Council on E15 ethanol blends. The report is here. The API: Blast your scuppers, now I gotcha, ya’ flea-ridden riff-raff! Use of the ethanol gasoline blend E15 may endanger fuel systems in millions of 2001 and newer vehicles,...
What I Sold: Pacific Ethanol (NASD:PEIX)
This entry continues a series on companies I sold as part of a portfolio cleanup prompted by the mess on Wall Street. In the first entry I describe what I plan to do with the cash, and the second was about Carmanah Technologies. UQM Technologies was one I didn't sell. In May of last year, I took a look at competitive forces in the corn ethanol industry. While I was rather negative on the industry at the time, when ethanol stocks fell in the summer and fall of 2007, I called the bottom much too soon, and...
Why Only Ethanol?
Where are butanol and other substitutes for gasoline? Jim Lane A reader writes: I’d hoped that the biofuels crowd would have gotten beyond ethanol by now. The industry has made progress creating all kinds of specialty chemicals from renewable sources and more or less successfully brought them to market. There’s jet and diesel in commercial use whether or not they’re yet profitable. However they have made zero commercial progress on anything other than ethanol for gasoline. All the major advances have involved better and better ways to crank out ethanol. I don’t see the auto industry co-operating...
ADM raises capacity of N. Dakota biodiesel plant
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) s increasing the capacity of a biodiesel plant under construction in North Dakota to 85 million gallons a year, a company spokesman said on Wednesday. ADM originally announced the plant in Velva would produce 50 million gallons of biodiesel a year using canola oil. ADM decided to increase capacity to take advantage of economies of scale, said Greg Webb, vice president of public affairs.
Solar Headwinds, Part I
How Solar PV is like Ethanol Tom Konrad, CFA High levels of competition in the the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry mean that buy-and-hold investors should look elsewhere. In May 2007, I published a competitive analysis of the corn Ethanol industry based on Michael Porter's classic Five Competitive Forces model. At the time, Ethanol stocks were flying high, but my conclusion was that "the prospective ethanol investor should be very careful about investing in corn ethanol producers at random." If anything, I understated the case. This chart shows three ethanol stocks that have survived since 2007. As...
Ethanol and Biodiesel: Production Cost and Profitability
For a number of years, this (now old and outdated, but) very useful chart has been in circulation in energy circles, mapping the supply of energy to the world by looking not at prices, but at production costs. For one thing, it goes a long way to explaining why the price of oil can tumble so quickly when there is a fall off in demand, and explains why OPEC is troubled by unconventional oil in a way it is not so bothered by other energy sources such as renewable fuels. Renewables not only have been traditionally at the...
Tax On E85 Renewable Fuel Soars
Jim Lane The US passed a dubious and historic milestone this week. The tax rate on E85 renewable fuels now exceeds 100% in some formulations. By comparison, the tax rate on E10 renewable fuel is running at an estimated 41% and the tax rate on straight gasoline is running at an estimated 35%. As Shakespeare observed in Measure by Measure, “some rise by sin, and some by virtue fall”. Now, the idea of a carbon tax is that governments are supposed to collect more tax against high-carbon fuels. Yet, policy in practice works the other way. The less carbon...
Hither and Yon: Transmission and Biofuels
In the most recent two installments of Energy Tech Stocks' interview with me cover my views on transmission stocks, and biofuel stocks. Readers of AltEnergyStocks know that I am a big fan of electricity transmission, a theme I keep coming back to. You also know that I have a very ambivalent relationship with both ethanol and biodiesel. So I liked Bill's transmission article, but I just wasn't able to convey to him the subtleties of how I feel about biofuels. But he got one thing right: the owners of biofuel feedstock are likely going to be the biggest winners....
Corn Ethanol Emissions Savings Skyrocket
Jim Lane In Washington, an explosive new peer-reviewed report from ICF found that greenhouse gas emission reductions from typical corn-based ethanol production have soared to 43 percent compared to 2005-era gasoline. The report projects that by 2022, corn-based ethanol will achieve a 50 percent reduction, and could reach “76 percent in 2022 if there is more widespread adoption of optimal crop production and biorefinery efficiency.” The report, issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, based its revolutionary emissions math on a November 2014 study by researchers at Iowa State University, which found that farmers around the world have...
Lessons From Tesla: Building An Ethanol Market
Jim Lane E85 ethanol? Been stuck with low sales for years – with producers pointing to “no market access”. Yet, Tesla was faced with “no market access” and built its own market. What lessons can be learned? Last week, Tesla Motors (NASD:TSLA) announced the completion of its transcontinental US Supercharger Corridor, a network of stations that enable Model S owners to (somewhat) rapidly recharge their Teslas on a cross-country drove. And intrepid Tesla blgger Hamish McKenzie relayed the news last week that two Tesla Model S sedans completed a 76-hour coast-to-coast all-electric crossing. The news follows...
