US Ethanol Industry Upset With 2019 Renewable Fuel Standard Proposal
The 2019 proposed US Renewable Fuel Standard proposed volumes attracted a major raspberry from the ethanol industry.
As the American Coalition for Ethanol noted:
“Unfortunately, EPA continues to take actions which undermine the letter and spirit of the statute and harm the rural economy. While refiners are reporting double-digit profits, the heart of America is being left behind. Farmers are losing money while refiners have the best of both worlds: fat profit margins and minimal RFS compliance costs. EPA needs to discard its refiner-win-at-all-costs mentality and get the RFS back on track.”
“While the proposed rule purports to maintain the 15-billion-gallon conventional...
Covanta and Green Plains Partners Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Last week, two of the stocks in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio cut their dividends. Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) dropped its quarterly payout from $0.25 to $0.08 (a 68% cut) while Green Plains Partners (GPP) slashed its quarterly distribution from $0.475 to $0.12, a drop of 74.75%.
Before reducing their dividends, both companies had payout ratios near 100%, meaning that substantially all of their free cash flow was going to pay dividends. In general, companies are very reluctant to cut their dividends because it is a signal that their management thinks they cannot grow...
They’ll Put the Cellulose in Cellulosic Ethanol
One of the keys to staying ahead of the game in money management is lateral thinking. I start with the trend, and then try to think of industries or companies that might benefit, but are not on everyone else's radar. With Peak Oil-driven demand for biofuels, regular readers know that I consider the people who produce the feedstock (farmers, and industries whose waste can fairly easily be converted into biofuel) to be the most certain winners. One direction this chain of logic has taken me is to forestry companies. I'm far from a forestry analyst, so I decided to...
Butamax and Gevo: Bio’s Montagues and Capulets get it on, and on, and on
The 2-Minute Guide to Butamax vs Gevo, and vice-versa
The Andersons: E14 Ethanol Blend
by Debra Fiakas CFA The Andersons (ANDE: Nasdaq) is not one of the first companies that comes to mind as an alternative energy company. However, ANDE has been in the Ethanol Group in our Beach Boys Index for some time. Ethanol is one of six revenue sources for The Andersons, contributing $743 million to the top line in the year 2012. That represents about 14% of The Anderson’s total revenue base. The company produces ethanol in four plants located in the Midwest with a production capacity of 330 million gallons per year. ...
EPA’s 2018 Renewable Fuel Targets Disappoint Producers
In Washington, the Environmental Protection Agency released its final Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations for 2018. The agency finalized a total renewable fuel volume of 19.29 billion gallons , of which 4.29 BG is advanced biofuel, including 288 million gallons of cellulosic biofuel.
As the Renewable Fuels Association explained: “That leaves a 15 BG requirement for conventional renewable fuels like corn ethanol, consistent with the levels envisioned by Congress in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The 2018 total RFS volume finalized today represents a minor increase (10 million gallons) over the 2017 standards, and a modest increase...
A Modest Proposal: Cellulosic Beef
The Future is Cellulosic It is now widely accepted that the future of ethanol is cellulosic: Rather than distilling corn for ethanol to fuel our cars, accepted wisdom is now that we will be able to replace a large fraction of our current fuel consumption with ethanol distilled from agricultural and forestry waste, as well as dedicated energy crops, such as switchgrass and hybrid poplar. Cellulosic ethanol also has the potential to alleviate the greatest stumbling block of corn ethanol as a potential replacement of gasoline: that there is simply not enough of it. Corn ethanol will only be...
Green Plains Nabs 3 Ethanol Plants On The Cheap
Jim Lane In Nebraska, word has arrived from Green Plains (GPRE) that it will purchase the Madison, Ill., Mount Vernon, Ind. and York, Neb. ethanol facilities from Abengoa (ABGOY) Bioenergy with combined annual production capacity of 236 million gallons per year, for approximately $237 million in cash, plus certain working capital adjustments. The company said it was the successful bidder on three ethanol plants for sale conducted under the provisions of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. Upon completion of the acquisitions, Green Plains will own and operate 17 dry mill ethanol facilities with combined production capacity of nearly 1.5...
The Green Plains Way
Jim Lane As the renewables industry searches for effective business models, a strong one emerges in its midst. We look at Green Plains (GPRE) and its businesses. A recurring theme among the 300+ delegates at ABLC Next this week in San Francisco is the recognition that successful companies change the world not science projects, or failed companies and that any route that leads across the Valley of Death to commercial success is the first step towards a sustainable economy, and that strong lead products are the oxen that get settlers across the desert. Renewable...
Green Plains Bets on Ethanol Recovery
by Debra Fiakas CFA Last week the Chief Executive Officer of Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. (GPRE: Nasdaq), Todd Becker, revealed during conference calls following its quarter earnings report that the company has been in discussions to sell ethanol to industrial users in Mexico. It is news that could be music to shareholders ears. U.S. storage tanks are brim full of ethanol as producers like Green Plains stock pile inventories waiting for better selling prices. Green Plains has made claims to Mexico sales before, but has never revealed customer names or volumes. None were named...
Ethanol Stocks Reviewed On Seeking Alpha
With oil and gasoline prices rising ever higher, investors are shifting attention to alternative energy stocks as a promising high-growth sector. A particular area of interest is ethanol stocks and forthcoming ethanol IPOs. Here are companies recently reviewed on Seeking Alpha Archers Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM) Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) Xethanol (XTHN) VeraSun (VSE) MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE) Andersons Inc. (Nasdaq: ANDE) Veridium Corporation (VRDM)
Clearfish Research Profiles Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) is building a refinery in California for corn based ethanol production in the heart of the California agricultural and dairy land (the biggest agricultural and dairy producer in the country). The refinery is supposed to come on line in Q4 2006, and there are plans for 4 more subsequent refineries. As there is unlikely to be any increased ethanol demand in California (see background above), the supply capacity they are bringing online must be able to disrupt the current out-of-state supply and/or undercut the current prices. They are one of the biggest distributors of that alternate...
Ethanol and Biodiesel: Production Cost and Profitability
For a number of years, this (now old and outdated, but) very useful chart has been in circulation in energy circles, mapping the supply of energy to the world by looking not at prices, but at production costs. For one thing, it goes a long way to explaining why the price of oil can tumble so quickly when there is a fall off in demand, and explains why OPEC is troubled by unconventional oil in a way it is not so bothered by other energy sources such as renewable fuels. Renewables not only have been traditionally at the...
Ethanol Stocks: Risks, Challenges, & Opportunities
The Great Ethanol Debate: Shoddy Economics all 'Round. Like many environmentalists, I'm not a big fan of the ethanol industry, especially corn ethanol. From a net energy standpoint, even advocates agree that you only get a little more energy out than the energy you put in (Energy Return on Energy Invested or EROEI of 0.9 to 1.5, depending on whom you ask... some say it's much lower.) At this point, most environmentalists simply decide that ethanol isn't sustainable enough for them, and go back to talking about photovoltaics (EROEI around 8, PDF) and wind (EREOI 30-70, PDF). The last...
Advantage Biodiesel
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Because of rising fertilizer prices, farmers are planting more soybeans than corn. Soybeans are a legume, meaning that they can fix their own nitrogen in the soil, meaning that they need less nitrogen fertilizer, the price of which is spiking due to rising natural gas prices. Corn, in contrast, needs more nitrogen than most other crops.
High gas prices are rising because of Putin’s war on Ukraine, which is also preventing Ukrainian farmers from planting this year’s wheat crop, while sanctions are likely to disrupt wheat supplies from Russia as well.
Corn and (to a lesser extent,...
Green Plains Primes The Pump
by Debra Fiakas CFA Ethanol producer Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. (GPRE: Nasdaq) announced today plans to build a fuel terminal point in Beaumont, Texas. The terminal will be located at a facility owned by Green Plains’ partner in the venture, Jefferson Gulf Coast Energy Partners. It will be helpful to have a friend in the project that is expected to cost $55 million to complete just ethanol storage and throughput capacity. Planned storage capacity is equivalent to 500,000 barrels, with the potential to expand to 1.0 million barrels. Capacity to handle biofuels or other...
