Solar Headwinds, Part II
Tom Konrad, CFA Prospective investors in solar manufacturers should consider the competitive forces that constrain the industry's long-term profitability. In the first part of this series, I showed how a competitive analysis of the corn ethanol industry in early 2007 illuminated the forces that soon caused ethanol company stock prices to collapse in late 2007. I also implied that the solar cell manufacturers, including industry leaders such as Sunpower (SPWRA) and First Solar (FSLR) are vulnerable to these forces and may not be able to maintain high returns on capital over the long term. I'm not...
Evergreen Solar Introduces Sunplicity Flat Roof Mounting System for EC-100 Series Modules
Evergreen Solar Inc (ESLR) introduced Sunplicity(TM), an advanced Flat Roof Mounting System (FRMS) designed specifically for use with its EC-100 Series modules. Geared for large and small solar PV installations on commercial, institutional and government buildings, the Sunplicity FRMS is a non-penetrating, aerodynamic, self-ballasted system that enables faster, easier and more cost-effective PV installations.
SunPower Narrows 4Q Loss, Shares Jump
SunPower Corp. (SPWR) announced that revenue for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2005, was $29.3 million, up 34% from the prior quarter's revenue of $21.9 million and up 523% from the year-ago fourth quarter combined(1) revenue of $4.7 million. The Company's fiscal 2005 revenue was $78.7 million. These 4th quarter earnings have narrowed the companies losses and they expect significant quarter-on-quarter top line revenue increases to between $38 - $40 million. The stock gapped up 8% this morning on the news and is starting to give back most of these gains. It is currently trading...
Solar power homes required in California?
California officials are proposing that half of all new homes in the state be running on solar energy in 10 years, an effort spurred by $100 million in annual incentives paid for by electricity consumers. This type of legislation would be a boon for the solar energy companies in California. In related news Kyocera Corp (KYO) announced today that it will begin large-scale assembly of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules this fall at its maquiladora facility in Tijuana, Mexico, with plans to establish a regional office in San Diego for solar system engineering and marketing.
Growth of Solar
Here are some additional notes I took from the Solar Energy conference. I was meaning to post this one earlier, but life and time got away from me. This session dealt with the Growth of Solar. It was not one of the more interesting sessions, but some of the people on the roundtable were very interesting. The first person to speak was Edwin Hill, President of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. His major focus for the reason why he and the IBEW was attending the conference is to state that they want to be a partner...
Tyler’s Elk Conference Call Notes
Tyler at Clean Break was able to listen in on the Elk Corp (ELK) earnings conference call this morning. Elk has had a multiple year partnership with ATS Automation (ATA.TO) solar division Spheral Solar. The two companies have been planning a commercial release of solar-integrated roofing and building material products. Elk Roofing chairman and CEO Tom Karol, responding to questions from MacMurray Whale from Sprott Securities, said the Spheral Solar roofing product is still in alpha testing but the company hopes to move into beta testing i.e. put it on real rooftops in the marketplace in...
Why CSP Should Not Try to be Coal
Joe Romm, at the influential Climate Progress blog, has hit on a formula for countering the coal industry's claims that we need baseload power sources. Since Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) in conjunction with thermal storage can be used to generate 24/7 or baseload power Joe has renamed it "Solar Baseload." This is win-the-battle-lose-the-war thinking. While it does neatly counter the argument we need coal or nuclear, since there are renewable power sources which can produce baseload, such as CSP, Geothermal, and Biomass. I fell into this coal-industry trap myself in a 2007 article about Geothermal, as did AltEnergyStocks...
SunPower Announces $330 Million Global Solar Supply Agreement with PowerLight
SunPower Corporation (SPWR) announced its largest ever product supply contract. The supply agreement with PowerLight Corp., a global solar systems provider, calls for the delivery of $330 million of solar panels from 2005 through 2009. SunPower's industry-leading products will be incorporated into PowerLight's advanced solar power systems for commercial, government and new home residential customers worldwide. SunPower is trading up over 6% today on the news.
Congress to Fund $2.5 Million in Energy and Water Development Appropriations for Altair Nanotechnologies’...
Altair Nanomaterials (ALTI) has been designated to receive an additional $2.5 million in Federal grant funding during 2006-2007 for the continued development of nanotechnology, nanosensors, and nanomaterials research, development and deployment. The $2.5 million funding was included in the Congressional Energy and Water Development Appropriation for Fiscal Year 2006, which was passed by the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives on November 8, 2005. We anticipate the appropriation will be signed by the President within the next week. ALTI had a nice 10% jump in the price yesterday on this news.
Unprofitable Sunrun Buys Unprofitable Vivint Solar
by Paula Mints
In July, Unprofitable residential solar lease company Sunrun (RUN) announced that it would acquire its unprofitable competitor, Vivint Solar (VSLR). Each share of Vivint stock will be exchanged for .55 shares of Sunrun’s common stock. Sunrun indicated that there were great synergies between the two companies.
Comment: Remember when Tesla (TSLA) adopted Solar City, a company founded by Elon Musk’s cousin? Sorry – remember when Tesla acquired money-losing Solar City and claimed strong growth and profits would follow? Great synergies. A wonderful future. Rainbows, kittens, and a profitable solar future for all.
The residential solar lease and residential PPA offers...
Questions about DayStar Technologies
I received an e-mail from a reader that had questions about holding DSTI. I had some concerns about DSTI. I was wondering if you still believe investment in this company or alternative energy stocks is worth it. If crude oil drops further (let say mid 50s) do you think it will have negative impact on alternative energy stocks particularly ENER and DSTI. I was very happy with the holding a couple days ago, but the performance of DSTI in last 2 days without any news has got me concerned. Let me answer your question with first a...
Spire Provides BIPV Systems to Chicago’s Green Commercial Center
Spire Corp (SPIR) announced the completion of Building Integrated Photovoltaic ("BIPV") Systems at the Bethel New Life Lake-Pulaski Commercial Center. The commercial center, located on the West Side of Chicago, will house a day care facility, commercial enterprises, a clinic and employment services. The Lake-Pulaski Commercial Center has two BIPV systems. One, approximately 25 kilowatts in size, is a roof-tile system; the other is a 7-kilowatt awning system. The BIPV awning system is the first commercial building appearance of clear back-sheet photovoltaic modules locally manufactured by Spire Solar for a greater appeal to aesthetics. The awnings will improve the...
Solar Headwinds, Part I
How Solar PV is like Ethanol Tom Konrad, CFA High levels of competition in the the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry mean that buy-and-hold investors should look elsewhere. In May 2007, I published a competitive analysis of the corn Ethanol industry based on Michael Porter's classic Five Competitive Forces model. At the time, Ethanol stocks were flying high, but my conclusion was that "the prospective ethanol investor should be very careful about investing in corn ethanol producers at random." If anything, I understated the case. This chart shows three ethanol stocks that have survived since 2007. As...
WorldWater & Power Corp. Signs Contract to Provide Solar Power to Quest Environmental Facility
Worldwater Corp (WWAT) announced that it has signed a $109,824 contract to build and install a solar electric power generation system for Quest Environmental & Engineering Services, headquartered in Clinton, New Jersey. The photovoltaic (PV) system will provide electricity for the company, and is expected to substantially reduce electrical usage costs for the facility.
ECD Ovonics Selects Site for Its 50-Megawatt Solar Cell Manufacturing Plant
Energy Conversion Devices Inc (ENER) has announced plans to build a third solar cell manufacturing plant to be located in Greenville, Michigan. In February the comapny approved plans to expand United Solar Ovonic's module manufacturing capacity to 300 megawatts (MW) by 2010. The first phase of the expansion plan includes the construction of the Greenville manufacturing facility with an annual capacity of 50MW, which is expected to be operational in calendar year 2007. United Solar Ovonic's existing 25MW production facility is located in Auburn Hills, Mich. In July 2005, United Solar Ovonic broke ground for a second 25MW...
Analyzing Solar Stocks With False Assumptions
Dana Blankenhorn The lessons of technology investing also apply to solar investing. The decision by Evergreen Solar (ESLR) to move to China has some analysts saying "ha-ha" over solar energy. But in fact it reveals a basic fallacy in the way solar power, and solar power stocks, are analyzed by Wall Street. It's a manufacturing assumption. Solar panels are said to be a manufacturing business. So if prices are going down, that's bad. If governments are no longer seeing solar as just good PR, if they're treating it as a real industry that has to make...
