FutureFuel, Present Buying Opportunity
Tom Konrad CFA FutureFuel Corp. (NYSE:FF) manufactures chemicals, biofuels (mostly biodiesel), and other biobased products. About 60% of revenues have historically come from the Chemicals unit, with the balance of 40% coming from the Biodiesel unit. Both units saw sharp declines in revenues over the last two quarters for reasons that seem likely to be temporary (at least in part.) The stock has sold off sharply as a result, falling from the $18-$21 range this spring to its $12 recent price Biodiesel The entire biodiesel industry has been suffering from the expiration of the biodiesel blender's tax...
Soladiesel Algae Fuel is a Monster Hit
Jim Lane Sales increase 35 percent at participating test sites and survey results reveal driver preference for algae-based Soladiesel over conventional fuels. In California, Propel Fuels and Solazyme (SZYM) announced that sales grew by 35 percent at Propel stations, offering SoladieselBD in a B20 blend during a 30-day retail pilot program, compared to non-test sites. The pilot was conducted at Propel’s Clean Fuel Points in Redwood City, San Jose, Berkeley, and Oakland. In addition, a follow-on consumer preference study with Propel’s customers found 92 percent of participants noted that they would be more likely to...
Renewable Energy Group Profits Exceed Subsidies
by Debra Fiakas CFA Earlier this month biodiesel producer Renewable Energy Group, Inc. (REGI: Nasdaq) reported a tidy profit of $22.3 million on record $1.0 billion in total sales. Reported net income was $43.5 million, including accounting treatments for corporate recapitalization undertaken in the year. Results from 2012 were noteworthy on a couple of counts. It was the first time in the company’s ten-year history (including years of operation among predecessor firms) that sales exceeded $1.0 billion. REGI produced 188 million gallons of biodiesel from a variety of feedstock, including non-edible corn oil, used...
Amyris hits the comeback trail
Jim Lane Biofene production starts up in Paraiso, Brazil – sales expected to commence in Q1 2013 – Total, Temasek, Biolding inject fresh capital. What’s next for biofuels’ “Comeback Kid”? By now, most of the “smart set” that found itself excited about Amyris (AMRS), and about advanced synthetic biofuels during the IPO fever, have moved on. They read Dan Grushkin’s “The Rise And Fall Of The Company That Was Going To Have Us All Using Biofuels” in Fast Company, wrote off Amyris and possibly the entire sector, and presumably migrated their enthusiasm to low-cost natural gas, battery...
Biobased and Biofuel Investments: A System
Jim Lane A Biofuels and Biobased investment primer: An 18-combination, 8-character system for classifying bio investments Here’s our investment primer on how to size up the risks and the rewards and tune them to meet your goals. And, a system for organizing opportunities. So, you’re thinking about investing in bio? Here’s the good news – you’re not alone. Here’s the bad news – you’re not alone. There are retail, private equity, hedge fund, sovereign wealth, strategic, grower, VC and institutional investors snooping around too, and making active investments. For one thing, carbon’s making a comeback as the...
Renewable Energy Group Raises $72 Million in Biodiesel IPO
Jim Lane In Iowa, the Renewable Energy Group IPO priced last night, and the company’s shares began trading Thursday on NASDAQ under the REGI symbol. The company sold 7.2 million shares at $10 per share, well below its midpoint target of $14 per share announced last week, with total proceeds of up to $82.8 million if all over-allotments are covered by underwriters. Without over-allotment sales, the offering will raise $72 million. UBS Securities LLC and Piper Jaffray & Co. are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering. Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated and Canaccord...
Ethanol and Biodiesel: Production Cost and Profitability
For a number of years, this (now old and outdated, but) very useful chart has been in circulation in energy circles, mapping the supply of energy to the world by looking not at prices, but at production costs. For one thing, it goes a long way to explaining why the price of oil can tumble so quickly when there is a fall off in demand, and explains why OPEC is troubled by unconventional oil in a way it is not so bothered by other energy sources such as renewable fuels. Renewables not only have been traditionally at the...
REG: A Little ADM With Better Growth Prospects
Jim Lane At 8:30am, there’s a standing daily meeting of the key traders in Gary Haer’s sales group at Renewable Eenergy Group's (NASD:REGI aka REG) headquarters in Ames, Iowa. And they’re not kidding. Everyone stands. For 15 minutes there’s the rat-a-tat-tat of rumor, fact, competitors, pricing, spreads, the who’s selling what and where, the buying and selling of diesel, renewable diesel and biodiesel across North America. On most minds this Friday morning, what’s going to happen with corn prices? The USDA late on Thursday released its annual spring plantings report and it was a shocker. Corn acres...
Renewable Energy Group’s New CEO: C.J. Warner
by Jim Lane
In Iowa, white smoke has emerged from the Renewable Energy Group (REGI) conclave: Tesoro EVP and former Sapphire Energy CEO C.J. Warner has been named chief exec of Renewable Energy Group, at a pivotal moment for biodiesel in Washington and around the world and amidst a boom for renewable diesel like the world has never seen.
REG has been making good progress with Wall Street under interim CEO Randy Howard and its share price has been on the rise, and the plants have been humming along nicely churning out hundreds of millions of gallons of biodiesel and the liquid gold...
Biodiesel’s Nightmare: Renewable Diesel
Until algae farms move from the research and demonstration stage, biodiesel usage is going to be tightly constrained by available feedstock. The feedstocks for biodiesel are oils and fats, which naturally occur in quantity only in animals or the seeds of plants. As such, the quantity of oil available is much smaller than the sugars, starches, and cellulose which occur not only in the seeds and fruits of plants, but also in the stems and leaves, and can be used to make ethanol. Because sugarcane contains the best ethanol feedstock, sugar in the stem (not just the...
What I Sold: Dynamotive Energy Systems (OTC:DYMTF)
This entry continues a series on companies I sold as part of a portfolio cleanup prompted by the mess on Wall Street. In the first entry I described what I plan to do with the cash, followed by the reasons why I sold Carmanah Technologies and Pacific Ethanol. UQM Technologies was one I didn't sell. I have not mentioned Dynamotive Energy Systems (DYMTF) before. I have mixed feelings about the company. They use fast pyrolysis to make cellulosic biofuels, which I believe will prove to be one of the more economic pathways to cellulosic biofuels. However, I believe that...
Another Biodiesel Plant Gets The Axe. Here’s Why.
by Jim Lane
In another small but sharp blow to the Trump Administration’s strategy for American manufacturing revival, news arrives from Texas of a second smaller biodiesel shuttering owing to “ challenging business conditions and continued federal policy uncertainty,” as Renewable Energy Group (REGI) phrased it in announcing the closure of its15 million gallons per year New Boston, Texas biorefinery. The company is currently working with plant employees on relocation opportunities within the production network.
The tax credit issue
The forces impacting the US biodiesel industry at present are complex, but REG in this case is pointing the blame at the biodiesel tax...
FutureFuel Profits Preview
by Debra Fiakas CFA Biodiesel and biochemical producer FutureFuel Corporation (FF: NYSE) will report fourth quarter 2015 financial results after the market close today. No conference call will be held due to low attendance on recent calls. The single published estimate for FutureFuel is for $0.28 in earnings per share on $122.5 million in total sales. Despite an increase in this estimate in the last week, the number still represents a significant decrease in earnings compared to the prior-year period. The Company has missed the consensus estimate in both of the last two quarters and we do not...
Conversions To Renewable Diesel
by Helena Tavares Kennedy
The seasons are changing in many parts of the world right now, but what really is changing this autumn is how the world is looking at renewable diesel. Phillips 66 and REG’s announcement about a new renewable diesel plant on the U.S. West Coast planned for 2021 comes after a notable increase in refineries that are being converted and changed over to renewable diesel. Change is good, especially in this case.
As Bob Dylan sang, “For the loser now, Will be later to win, For the times they are a-changin’.” And who knew he was singing about the RFS...
Biofuels M&A: 2017 Review and Outlook
by Bruce Comer, Ocean Park Advisors
More industry players chose to develop and build new capacity rather than buy plants
The North American biofuels industry experienced the fewest merger and acquisition transactions in recent history in 2017. There were only six M&A transactions, with a total estimated value of more than $100 million. They involved eight plants with 297 million gallons per year (MGPY) of production capacity. Half of these deals were for non-operating plants. A fourth deal was for a sub-scale demonstration plant. Contributing to the limited deal flow, two historically active acquirers, Green Plains and REG, did not close...
The Energy Balance of Snake Oil
It's no secret that money is flooding into the alternative energy sector, but not all of this money comes from sophisticated, investors. Unsophisticated investment is a lighting rod for the scam artists. Because there is both an urgent need to deal with the the problems posed by global warming, energy security, and resource depletion, and the new money is rapidly accelerating the advance of technology in renewable energy, new innovations are very plausible. There are many ways to lose money in alternative energy, even without being taken by a scam. The current emotional...
