Green swan, Black swan: No matter as long as it reduces stranded spending
by Prashant Vaze, The Climate bonds Initiative
In January, authors from several institutions under the aegis of BiS, published The Green Swan Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change setting out their take on the epistemological foundations for, and obstacles against, central banks acting to mitigate climate change risk.
The book’s early chapters provide a cogent and up-to-date analysis of climate change’s profound and irreversible impacts on ecosystems and society. The authors are critical of overly simplistic solutions such as relying on just carbon taxes. They also recognize the all-too-evident deficits in global policy to respond to the threat.
In short, they accept the need for central banks to act.
The Two Arguments
The paper makes two powerful arguments setting out the challenges central banks face using their usual mode of working.
Firstly, climate change’s impact on financial systems is an unknowable unknown – a...
Brookfield’s Yieldco Buying Spree
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
Last week, a Bloomberg reported on a rumor that Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) was in talks to buy Abengoa's (ABGOY) stake in its former YieldCo Atlantica Yield (ABY). Atlantica had been looking for a new sponsor for well over a year since parent Abengoa filed for bankruptcy.
Purchasing Yieldcos (companies that own clean energy infrastructure and use the cash flows to pay large dividends to shareholders) is not new to Brookfield. Not only has BAM long sponsored Brookfield Renewable Partners, LP (BEP), a limited partnership that has essentially been a Yieldco since before the term was...
See You Later, Hannon Armstrong
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
Sustainable infrastructure financier Hannon Armstrong (NYSE:HASI) is not in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio for the first year since its IPO in 2013. I still love the company and its business model, but I have become concerned about its short term prospects.
Dividend Disappointment?
In my last update on the 2017 portfolio, I wrote,
“Sustainable infrastructure and clean energy financier Hannon Armstrong reported earnings on November 1st. The headline numbers were lower than expected, but for a very good reason. The company has spent the last few months locking in low interest rates by refinancing its...
New Green Bonds From Terraform And Goldwind
by the Climate Bonds Team Second green bond from TerraForm to finance wind power acquisition, $300m 10yr, 6.125% s/a coupon, BB-/B1 TerraForm Power Operating , the yieldco spin off from SunEdison , has issued a second green bond shortly after tapping its inaugural green bond for a further $150m (making their first green bond a whopping $950m!). The new $300m green bond has 10-year tenor and semi-annual coupon of 6.125%, and was issued in the US private placement market. It is sub-investment grade with a rating of BB- from S&P and B1...
Atlantica Q1, Buying Hannon Armstrong
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Here are two more updates from last week on Patreon. Also, I realize I neglected to publish the monthly performance chart for my 10 Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio here at the start of the month, so here it is as well:
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure Earnings
(published May 11th)
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY) released its first quarter earnings announcement and financial statements on May 6th.
Atlantica is one of the higher yielding Yieldcos, 5.3% at the new quarterly dividend rate of $0.43 and a $32.50 stock price. The dividend is safe, since most of Atlantica's debt is fixed rate,...
Climate Bonds 2016 Highlights
by the Climate Bonds Team
A record year with green bond issuance of USD 81bn, up 92% on 2015 figures
The Trends
A maturing of the green bonds market, diversification across issuers, products and use of proceeds are the main trends identified in our Green Bonds Highlights 2016 summary.
The Big Numbers
92% – growth on 2015 making 2016 the most prolific year to date
USD 11.8bn – November issuance, the largest month on record
24 – number of countries with green bond issuers
27% – proportion of Chinese issuers
241 – number of labelled green bonds issued (median size USD133.7m)
>90 – number of new issuers
>50 – number...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Updates on GPP, HASI, CVA
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Market Decline
Last week I warned "The risks in today's stock market outweigh the possibility of future potential gains." Looks like we're seeing those risks manifest in short order. The last couple days' decline have me looking at a few stocks to start adding to my positions again, especially MiX Telematics (MIXT) discussed on June 2nd and Green Plain Partners (GPP), discussed below.
Note that this pullback could easily be very early days of a much larger market decline. We might even see the market fall far enough to test the March lows... any of my buying...
Buying Innergex – Texas Was Bad, But Not That Bad
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Last week, I published this call to buy Innergex (INGXF, INE.TO) because investors had been overreacting to the losses from the February cold snap in Texas. The stock is up since then, but still seems a decent value.
Canadian Yieldco Innergex Renewable Energy (INGXF, INE.TO) took a big financial hit from the power disruptions in Texas in March.
It's complex, but their financial hedges on power prices for three of its wind farms ended up creating enormous liabilities - more, in fact, than two of their wind farms are worth. Two of their facilities also had benefits...
Yieldcos: Calling The Bottom
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA On a podcast recorded on September 14th, I said I thought that Yieldco stocks had bottomed at the end of September. Two weeks later, that call still looks like a good one (see chart.) I'm starting to hear optimistic noises from other Yieldco observers, although the general tone remains quite bearish. Why do I think September 29th was the likely bottom? End of quarter. Some institutional investors such as mutual funds reshuffle their portfolios at the end of the quarter so that they don't have...
Is Clean Water Always Green? Why I <3 NY
By Bridget Boulle and Sean Kidney Helping to push along the green muni space, the New York State Environmental Facilities Corp (EFC), rated AAA, has issued a USD 213 million green / water bond. There were 30 bookrunners on this bond with JP Morgan and LOOP Capital Partners co-leads - see prospectus. The proceeds will be used to provide financial assistance to local governments to finance and refinance drinking water projects as well as to refund certain bonds previously issued. They expect to support 128 drinking water and wastewater infrastructure projects across the State. Qualifying projects...
Has the Sell-off Created Value Stocks Among Clean Energy Conglomerates?
Tom Konrad CFA The silver lining of all market declines is the chance to buy stock in quality companies at attractive prices. That opportunity has been notably absent over the last two years, which is why my focus has shifted to smaller and smaller companies in search of reasonable valuations over that time. Although I still don't believe the market is cheap by any measure other than comparing it to a couple months ago, the volatility is starting to bring some individual bargains, especially on heavy selling days. For instance, I've started to acquire some of...
Investors Expect Rapid Growth At Pattern Energy Group
Tom Konrad CFA Pattern Energy's Gulf Wind Farm in Armstrong, Texas Disclosure: Long BEP. Pattern Energy Group (NASD:PEGI, TSX:PEG) completed a very successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq and Toronto stock exchanges on September 27th. Not only did the shares price at $22, near the top of the expected range, but the underwriters exercised their full over allotment option to purchase 2.4 million shares in addition to the initial 16 million offered. Total proceeds from the offering were $404.8 million. Most of the proceeds went to Pattern Energy Group, LP (PEGLP) in consideration for a...
Four Green Dividend Stocks That IPO’d In 2013
Tom Konrad CFA Disclosure: Long BEP, HASI. Canada’s stock exchanges have long had the lead as the place for energy infrastructure companies to list. This includes green energy, as well as the fossil fueled sort. Because Canada’s reporting rules are somewhat less stringent, and its markets less liquid than those in the US, the large number of offerings trade at lower valuations and higher yields than do their (few) US-listed equivalents. In fact, it was the promise of a higher valuation which led Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners (NYSE:BEP, TSX:BEP-UN) to obtain its US listing on June...
The Pros Pick Three Green Income Stocks For 2014
It’s now possible to invest in green stocks for income, not just for growth. Here are three picks for 2014 from green investing professionals.
Hannon Armstrong Declines to Raise Dividend, Sets 3 Year Guidance
Investors did not like Hannon Armstrong's (NYSE:HASI) fourth quarter earnings announcement last night. While core earnings were a little weaker than expected, that is not what has the stock trading down 11% today. What shocked investors is the fact that the company did not raise the dividend this year for the first time since the REIT went public, and it gave 3 year guidance which likely disappointed many investors.
Last month, I wrote,
I expect that Hannon Armstrong will continue to be a well run and conservative business in 2018, and that management will raise the dividend at the lower end...
One Week, Three YieldCo Deals. Are More Buyouts on the Horizon?
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
It's been a busy several days in the YieldCo space.
On February 5, 8point3 Energy Partners (NASD:CAFD) announced an agreement to be acquired by an infrastructure investment fund managed by Capital Dynamics. While I was still writing an article on why the sale price was at a virtually unheard of discount relative to the stock market price, two more YieldCo deals were announced: NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) agreed to sell its sponsorship stake in NRG Yield (NYSE:NYLD and NYSE:NYLD/A) to Global Infrastructure Partners, and YieldCo TerraForm Power (NASD:TERP) made an offer to buy out Spanish YieldCo Saeta Yield (Madrid:SAY) at a 20 percent...
