Are YieldCos Overpaying for Their Assets?
Tom Konrad CFA YieldCos buy and own clean energy projects with the intent of using the resulting cash flows to pay a high dividend to their investors. Several such companies, often captive subsidiaries of listed project developers, have listed on U.S. markets since 2013. So far, YieldCos have been a win-win: The developers that list YieldCos have gained access to inexpensive capital, and income investors have gotten access to a new asset class paying stable and growing dividends. So far, they have also gained from significant stock price appreciation. The seven U.S.-listed YieldCos are up...
Will Investors Flock to SunEdison’s Emerging-Market YieldCo?
by Tom Konrad CFA SunEdison is proposing something entirely new: a YieldCo with a focus on projects in Africa and Asia, but it's a long way between an S-1 filing with the SEC and and IPO. The June launch of SunEdison's (SUNE) first YieldCo, TerraForm Power (NASD:TERP), transformed the parent company's prospects. Now it wants to repeat the performance with a first-of-its kind YieldCo that will focus on investment in Africa and Asia. A YieldCo is a publicly traded company that is formed to own operating clean energy assets that produce a steady cash flow,...
The Making of a Solar REIT: By the Numbers
Tom Konrad, CFA A solar project at Fort Hunter Liggett in California. Photo: US Army Corps of Engineers Power REIT (NYSE:PW) announced yesterday that it had closed on a deal to buy approximately 100 acres of land leased to the owners of over 20 MW of solar projects near Fresno, CA. This will be the company’s second solar transaction and increases the share of its revenue from solar to 21%. These two solar transactions put PW well on its way to becoming the nation’s first REIT...
Funding The Energy Transition at Clean Energy Credit Union
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
With interest rates as low as they have ever been, I believe there is little point in small investors investing in bonds or bond funds, even if an allocation to fixed income is needed to match their investments to their ability and desire to take on risk. With little potential upside from interest, I believe it is better to take advantage of the added safety of federally backed insurance by depositing money in a bank or credit union savings account or certificate of deposit (CD) ladder.
We can do that and avoid having our deposits fund...
Fifteen Clean Energy Yield Cos, Created Unequal
Tom Konrad CFA Renewable Energy Investing Grows Up. In January I predicted 2014 would be the year "renewable energy finance comes of age." Here's how Jennifer Runyon quoted me on Renewable Energy World: Konrad believes that 2014 will be a great year for renewable energy finance, he said. He said that we saw the beginning of it in 2013 with the securitization of a bond by Solar City (SCTY) and pointed to Hannon Armstrong’s (HASI) securitization of an energy efficiency bond in late December 2013 as another indicator that renewable energy...
Nordex Issues First Green Schuldschein
by the Climate Bonds Team German green debt instrument raises €550m ($621m) for wind energy and gains Climate Bonds Certification. German wind company Nordex (NRDXF) is the first Schuldschein issuer to label its issue as green. The green issue is verified under the Climate Bonds Standard and sector specific Wind Standard. Assets include wind power manufacturing and infrastructure around the world. Nordex employed DNV GL to verify the green Schuldschein against the Climate Bonds Standard. The deal was split across four tranches with 3, 5, 7 and 10 year tenors. The joint underwriters were...
Renewable Energy REITs or MLPs Would Unlock Billions
Jennifer Runyon According to Richard Kauffman, Senior Advisor to the Secretary, DOE, making REITs or MLPs available for renewable energy project financing is the key to advancing the industry. Top engineering, procurement and construction firms gathered to network, learn and do business with corporate-level project developers at the PGI Financial Forum, one of four co-located events that took place in Orlando, Fla. earlier this month. Richard Kauffman, Senior Advisor to the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Energy, gave the keynote address during a luncheon that took place during the conference. ...
Buffet Bet Comes Out for Solar
by Sean Kidney Warren Buffet is a famous proponent of value investing and he surely received a sign of the value in solar investments over fossil fuels last week. The MidAmerican Energy $850m Topaz solar project bond we mentioned a couple of weeks ago was so successful that a second tranche is expected to cover the remaining debt of the project. The offer was oversubscribed by $400m which would have mopped up the total $1.2bn of debt in the project; Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) controls MidAmerican. In contrast, Buffet’s investment in $2bn of bonds from gas company...
US Yieldcos Will Survive
by Susan Kraemer As unrealistic expectations of dividend growth are scaled back, yieldcos are now on a more sustainable path. Weaknesses in the US yieldco model came into sharp relief this summer as share prices fell along with oil and gas stocks. This was in part due to investor confusion about energy stocks but also in response to a flaw in US yieldco expectations. Manager of the Green Global Equity Income Portfolio and AltEnergyStocks.com editor Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA had warned of the looming potential for exactly this kind of market correction in a conversation a...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Updates on GPP, HASI, CVA
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Market Decline
Last week I warned "The risks in today's stock market outweigh the possibility of future potential gains." Looks like we're seeing those risks manifest in short order. The last couple days' decline have me looking at a few stocks to start adding to my positions again, especially MiX Telematics (MIXT) discussed on June 2nd and Green Plain Partners (GPP), discussed below.
Note that this pullback could easily be very early days of a much larger market decline. We might even see the market fall far enough to test the March lows... any of my buying...
Has the Sell-off Created Value Stocks Among Clean Energy Conglomerates?
Tom Konrad CFA The silver lining of all market declines is the chance to buy stock in quality companies at attractive prices. That opportunity has been notably absent over the last two years, which is why my focus has shifted to smaller and smaller companies in search of reasonable valuations over that time. Although I still don't believe the market is cheap by any measure other than comparing it to a couple months ago, the volatility is starting to bring some individual bargains, especially on heavy selling days. For instance, I've started to acquire some of...
Covanta and Hannon Armstrong Earnings
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D. CFA
Two more earnings notes I shared with my Patreon followers on February 18th.
Covanta Holdings (CVA)
Leading waste-to-energy firm Covanta Holdings (CVA) announced 2020 earnings today. There will be a conference call tomorrow morning, but here is my high-level impression:
The company managed well through Covid and ended the year within it's original pre-covid guidance. Metals and energy prices, as well as increased maintenance capital expenditures were a drag on results, but prices are improving and capital expenditures will fall in 2021.
The company is conducting a strategic review which will likely result in the sale of some underperforming...
The Yieldco Virtuous Cycle
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Readers who followed my coverage of the Yieldco bubble in 2015 know the Yieldco Virtuous Cycle.
A Yieldco’s stock price rises
It issues new shares, and invests the money in renewable energy projects.
Because the stock price is high, it is able to buy more project cash flow by issuing fewer shares than it has in the past.
Cash flow available for distribution (CAFD) per share increases, despite the increasing number of shares outstanding.
Yieldco management sets a target for continued rapid annual distribution growth, which can be met either by further share issuance (if...
YieldCo Bubble: The Aftermath
Readers may be interested in listening to this podcast. Where Stephen Lacey and Shayle Kann of GreenTechMedia speak with me about the current YieldCo landscape. Follow this link to The Interchange Podcast. -Tom Konrad, Editor
Green swan, Black swan: No matter as long as it reduces stranded spending
by Prashant Vaze, The Climate bonds Initiative
In January, authors from several institutions under the aegis of BiS, published The Green Swan Central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change setting out their take on the epistemological foundations for, and obstacles against, central banks acting to mitigate climate change risk.
The book’s early chapters provide a cogent and up-to-date analysis of climate change’s profound and irreversible impacts on ecosystems and society. The authors are critical of overly simplistic solutions such as relying on just carbon taxes. They also recognize the all-too-evident deficits in global policy to respond to the threat.
In short, they accept the need for central banks to act.
The Two Arguments
The paper makes two powerful arguments setting out the challenges central banks face using their usual mode of working.
Firstly, climate change’s impact on financial systems is an unknowable unknown – a...
Solar Bonds and Other Green Income Investments Compared
by Tom Konrad CFA Clean-energy stocks’ performance over the last couple of years proves that it’s possible to do well – sometimes very well – while doing good. Unfortunately, it’s also possible to lose a lot of money. Case in point: solar installer SolarCity’s stock (SCTY) price has more than quintupled since its 2012 IPO, but has fallen 40% since the start of the year. Swings like these are just too wild for many investors to stomach. So the news that California-based SolarCity launched the first public offering of solar bonds last week likely piqued the interest of sustainability-minded...
