Finding a Bottom and Model Portfolio First Half Returns
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Even as the broad market rose, the start of 2021 was brutal for clean energy stocks. The sector experienced a bubble in late 2020 and January this year as optimism grew that we finally had a President who understands the magnitude of the climate problem and has committed to do something about it. The bubble also grew from the great hope that with the presidency and slim majorities in both houses of congress, he would actually be able to get his agenda through.
That might have happened if the Senate Republicans were interested in governing and...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2022-2023: The List
By Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
With the launch of my (green dividend income focused) hedge fund early this year, I had to take a hiatus from publishing my annual list of 10 Clean Energy Stocks that I feel will do well in the coming year. Since my duty to clients takes precedence over readers, I could not tell people about stocks I liked before buying them for the fund.
As we complete the first half of the year, the fund is now largely invested, although I am still keeping some buying power back in anticipation that the overall market could easily...
Covanta and Green Plains Partners Don’t Let A Crisis Go To Waste
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Last week, two of the stocks in my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio cut their dividends. Covanta Holding Corp (CVA) dropped its quarterly payout from $0.25 to $0.08 (a 68% cut) while Green Plains Partners (GPP) slashed its quarterly distribution from $0.475 to $0.12, a drop of 74.75%.
Before reducing their dividends, both companies had payout ratios near 100%, meaning that substantially all of their free cash flow was going to pay dividends. In general, companies are very reluctant to cut their dividends because it is a signal that their management thinks they cannot grow...
10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2020: Updates on GPP, HASI, CVA
by Tom Konrad, Ph.D., CFA
Market Decline
Last week I warned "The risks in today's stock market outweigh the possibility of future potential gains." Looks like we're seeing those risks manifest in short order. The last couple days' decline have me looking at a few stocks to start adding to my positions again, especially MiX Telematics (MIXT) discussed on June 2nd and Green Plain Partners (GPP), discussed below.
Note that this pullback could easily be very early days of a much larger market decline. We might even see the market fall far enough to test the March lows... any of my buying...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2014: May Update
Tom Konrad CFA April showers fell on both the broad market and clean energy stocks last month, but my picks weathered the storm relatively well. My clean energy benchmark (PBW) was down 5.9% since the last update, and my broad market benchmark (IWM) fell 1.7%. Meanwhile 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2014 model portfolio also fell 1.7%. For the year so far, the clean energy benchmark is up 4.5%, having given back most of its large February gains, while the broad market is down 2.5%. My model portfolio is up 2.2%, having...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2014: Patience Rewarded
Tom Konrad CFA For both the stock market and the weather, March was more lion than lamb. My broad market benchmark fell 2.2% to end up 1.5% for the quarter. Volatile clean energy stocks were down 4%, to end the quarter up 15.7%. My annual Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio is designed to avoid much of the sector's notorious volatility, and fell only 0.6%, ending the quarter with a 3.9% total return. In dollar terms, the first six (income oriented) picks returned an average...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2018: Quick November Update
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA
At the start of November, I abandoned my short-term bearish stance on the market, writing "I’m not confident that the correction is over, but we seem to be heading into a temporary lull, and so I’m going to abandon cash as my top pick for November." This turned out to be a good call, with my Ten Clean Energy Stocks model portfolio up 4.3% for the month, slightly behind its broad dividend income benchmark, SDY, which was up 4.9%. Its clean energy income benchmark YLCO gained 1.6%, as did the private portfolio I manage, the...
Notes On YieldCos, Future Fuel, and Aspen Aerogels
by Tom Konrad Ph.D., CFA Since I have not had much time to write for AltEnegyStocks, I thought I'd share with readers some notes I wrote for investors in the JPS Green Economy Fund, a hedge fund for which I'm director of Research, regarding our holdings in the third quarter: In the third quarter, we took advantage of the general decline of clean energy "YieldCos" to add two of these owners of wind and solar farms to our portfolio at attractive yields. Pattern Energy Group (PEGI) is an owner of wind farms having long term power purchase agreements...
Why I Sold My Utility Stocks
In times like these of financial uncertainty, regulated utilities have traditionally been considered a safe haven. But that is changing. The Dow Jones Utilities Average was down 30% in 2008, vs. a 34% drop in the Dow Industrials. Not much of a safe haven. In a recent interview, utilities analyst Daniel Scotto noted, that the utility industry offers "a lot less security" than it used to. His reasoning is based mainly on the fact that the regulated portion of utility company's business is smaller than it has been in previous recessions, making them vulnerable to lower growth (or even...
Where To Next For Solar PV Stocks?
Charles Morand There was an interesting post in Barron's tech trader daily on Monday discussing how solar PV stocks are coming under pressure, in part because product prices are falling further than expected. About a month ago, I discussed the potential return effect for households in given states of removing the $2,000 ITC cap. Such measures, it seems, are failing to kickstart demand, and solar recovery might end up being significantly slower than many had been expecting. Case in point, since hitting a high of $11.49 on June 11, the TAN ETF is down about 12%. KWT, for...
Three Green Money Managers; Six Green Stocks for 2013
Tom Konrad When I asked my panel of green money managers their predictions for trends 2013, I got enough material for four articles: On where the cleantech sector is heading in 2013, as well as on Solar, Smart Grid, and LED technology. I also asked them for stock picks, some of which I included in the previous articles. Several had opinions about EnerNOC (NASD:ENOC), which I wrote about here, and two picked LED stocks Veeco Instruments (NASD:VECO) and Universal Display Corp. (NASD:PANL), which I discussed here. Since I just published my annual model portfolio of...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks: A Rocky Start To 2015
Tom Konrad CFA 2015 got off to a rocky start for both the broad market in general, as well as clean energy. My Ten Clean Energy Stocks for 2015 model portfolio dd not fare any better, since the main bright spots for the portfolio were its three Canadian stocks, but these were dragged down by the 9% decline in the Canadian dollar for the month. For the month, the model portfolio was down 3.6% in local currency terms, but fell 7.2% in dollar terms. For comparison the broad universe of US small cap stocks was...
Fuel Cell Companies Purchased for Portfolio
I placed several trades for the mutual fund this afternoon to start building a position in some of the fuel cell companies. This sub-sector has been under pressure the last couple of months but seems to be building a nice base of support at the current levels. I feel this entire sub-sector is ready for a nice up move and the stocks have been behaving nicely the last week or so. The one stock I seriously considered not adding was Quantum. The stock has been in a steady decline and there is no sign that it’s going to slow...
Ten Clean Energy Stocks For 2014: Spooky October
October was a spooky month for clean energy stocks. My benchmark Powershares Wilderhill Clean Energy Index (PBW) cringed down 2.9% like the young Supergirl who jumped when a mechanical ghost startled her at my door Haloween night. My 10 Clean Energy Stocks for 2014 model portfolio was more like Supergirl's slightly older brother, who was dressed as a SWAT team member and insisted that he wasn't scared: It rose a slim 0.9% since the last update on October 3rd. For the ten months since I launched the portfolio on December 26th, PBW...
Shares of IDA Corp. Purchased
The fears of Rita have fallen away and the market is finally moving to the upside again this morning. I have been watching IdaTech (IDA) for purchase for a couple of weeks and I had previously mentioned I have been looking for a good entry point on this stock. IDAcorp is an Idaho power utility with electrical generation using Hydro, Natural Gas, and Coal. They also own IDATech which manufactures fuel cell solutions. I'm waiting on this one until the technical picture of the chart improves. I would be a buyer if we can either get...
Two Green Stocks I Told My Sister to Sell
Tom Konrad CFA I guide my sister through the stock market, she guides me through the mountains. Once a year, I give my sister stock trading advice. Managing money is not her thing, so any more often and she’d likely lose interest, and not do anything. With that constraint, I wait until there are a large number of stocks I think she should trade, and send he a list of trades, along with quantities and limit prices for her to enter “good ’til canceled.” Last May, I told her...
